Fantasy Premier League Thread

A Magician Named Gob

A Magician Named Gob

Well-Known Member
I've been meaning to start one of these for years on here.

I know that a lot of people set their team in GW1 and then forget all about it. Others set it in GW1, make transfers for a few weeks and then lose interest. This thread is for the weirdos perfectly normal players who continue playing it regularly throughout the season and try to win mini leagues for cash or bragging rights. I'm currently contemplating a 4 point hit to bring in Salah and Firmino for Kane and Hazard.

My highest finish is 50,000 or so and I'm aiming to finish in the 1% of the world whenever I play it. Currently sitting at about 3.5% and still have all the chips plus the second half of the season wildcard so on track. Whoever's currently top of the FF League is 594th in the world.

Rival talk, potential transfers, risers/fallers (if someone can keep on top of them) and gloating/slagging welcome. If you've had a good week and never contribute otherwise, feel free to tell us all about your 100 point score and ask if that's doing well.
 
I didn’t enter the FF one, missed the thread in August with code and stuff, in a couple of different other mini leagues.

I’ve been poor this season, making too many transfers that have cost me too many points. Plus not getting very lucky with choice of captain.

Still got 3 of the chips to use for remainder of season, waiting patiently to use wildcard at end of transfer window.

Random signing tip, Bednarek of Southampton is only £3.9m and he does actually play and they’ve been doing ok since new gaffer came in. Frees up money for elsewhere and does pick up some points!

Reluctantly adding some Man U players to my team too!
 
All of the Lights said:
I didn’t enter the FF one, missed the thread in August with code and stuff, in a couple of different other mini leagues.

I’ve been poor this season, making too many transfers that have cost me too many points. Plus not getting very lucky with choice of captain.

Still got 3 of the chips to use for remainder of season, waiting patiently to use wildcard at end of transfer window.

Random signing tip, Bednarek of Southampton is only £3.9m and he does actually play and they’ve been doing ok since new gaffer came in. Frees up money for elsewhere and does pick up some points!

Reluctantly adding some Man U players to my team too!
Click to expand...

Man Utd improving has probably been good for the game.

I've had Rashford and Pogba in for a few weeks now.

Shaw and Lindelof are 5.0 and 4.8m respectively as well for decent additions.
 
Rangers daft said:
826th in the whole of Scotland at the moment and sitting around 35000 overall, romping my private leagues so been a good campaign so far for me
Click to expand...

Have you had Salah in from the start?

I think that I would be sitting about there if I went for him but have been reluctant to add him for that price (to my detriment) throughout.

I think that Eriksen and Hazard (combined) have just about covered it.
 
Papac said:
I've been meaning to start one of these for years on here.

I know that a lot of people set their team in GW1 and then forget all about it. Others set it in GW1, make transfers for a few weeks and then lose interest. This thread is for the weirdos perfectly normal players who continue playing it regularly throughout the season and try to win mini leagues for cash or bragging rights. I'm currently contemplating a 4 point hit to bring in Salah and Firmino for Kane and Hazard.

My highest finish is 50,000 or so and I'm aiming to finish in the 1% of the world whenever I play it. Currently sitting at about 3.5% and still have all the chips plus the second half of the season wildcard so on track. Whoever's currently top of the FF League is 594th in the world.

Rival talk, potential transfers, risers/fallers (if someone can keep on top of them) and gloating/slagging welcome. If you've had a good week and never contribute otherwise, feel free to tell us all about your 100 point score and ask if that's doing well.
Click to expand...
Hold on hazard.... Arsenal games made for him to shine
 
Papac said:
Have you had Salah in from the start?

I think that I would be sitting about there if I went for him but have been reluctant to add him for that price (to my detriment) throughout.

I think that Eriksen and Hazard (combined) have just about covered it.
Click to expand...
Had him at the beggining dropped him and got him back(quickly) my team are called Roy's rangers on it.
 
I was doing well but faltered badly last few weeks and lost ground in my money league a played my second wildcard this week
 
I had Salah in the majority of last season so managed to get a start on most my rivals.

I've only just stuck him in now as I was put off by his price early doors.

Man City players can be a bit of a nightmare at times as Pep sometimes randomly drops the likes of Aguero.
 
Rangers daft said:
Hold on hazard.... Arsenal games made for him to shine
Click to expand...

He's been playing in the middle of the front 3 that Chelsea are playing to relative success.

Richarlison has been another decent OOP (out of position) option this season so far.

I've always liked adding Scottish players if they're good enough and this season, Robertson and Fraser have been excellent. Patterson playing up front for Cardiff could be an option too.
 
Unfortunately used my wildcard this week. Was wanting to wait until the end of the transfer window but injuries to Kane and Alexander-Arnold forced my hand.

After doing well without Salah I feel its time to get him in. Had to sacrifice Robertson and either Aubameyang or Aguero (not made my mind up yet). Brought Firmino in there but I'm still thinking about swapping him for Jimenez of Wolves and sticking in Sane.

Decisions, decisions and with being top of my work league I don't want to %^*& it up!
 
Mview83 said:
I was doing well but faltered badly last few weeks and lost ground in my money league a played my second wildcard this week
Click to expand...

Who's in your wildcard team?

I realise there might be cash leagues on here so posting that kind of stuff might not be a good idea.

I had a look and quite liked the look of:

aXjaAUn.png
 
ElMo said:
Unfortunately used my wildcard this week. Was wanting to wait until the end of the transfer window but injuries to Kane and Alexander-Arnold forced my hand.

After doing well without Salah I feel its time to get him in. Had to sacrifice Robertson and either Aubameyang or Aguero (not made my mind up yet). Brought Firmino in there but I'm still thinking about swapping him for Jimenez of Wolves and sticking in Sane.

Decisions, decisions and with being top of my work league I don't want to %^*& it up!
Click to expand...

Played wildcard too.

I’ve got Sane, Salah, Pogba, Rashford & Aubamyang as my main attackers.

Had TAA but upgraded to Robertson. Only decisions left is on whether to take Laporte out for a Utd defender and a cheap midfielder. Have Pereya in just now but Redmond on my radar as he’s been decent tonight.
 
Business_Bear said:
I had Salah in the majority of last season so managed to get a start on most my rivals.

I've only just stuck him in now as I was put off by his price early doors.

Man City players can be a bit of a nightmare at times as Pep sometimes randomly drops the likes of Aguero.
Click to expand...

I still find it strange that I have no Man City players despite how good they are normally.

I've had Stones, Mendy, Ederson, Sane and Aguero at various points in the season but rotation and that little spell of poor form saw them all gone.
 
Papac said:
I still find it strange that I have no Man City players despite how good they are normally.

I've had Stones, Mendy, Ederson, Sane and Aguero at various points in the season but rotation and that little spell of poor form saw them all gone.
Click to expand...

I've had spells where I've not had any as well, just got Sterling in at the moment. Also bizzarly had no Liverpool midfielders/forwards recently but they keep that many clean sheets that you need to stock up on defenders.

I think patience is the key with the forwards. The likes of Kane and Aguero will always get goals so worth the outlay.
 
Papac said:
Who's in your wildcard team?

I realise there might be cash leagues on here so posting that kind of stuff might not be a good idea.

I had a look and quite liked the look of:

aXjaAUn.png
Click to expand...
That's not a million miles away from my team.

I'm also considering putting Richarlison in, who I've had at points through the season and taking out Pererya. I've also stuck Nasri in as a cheap option who I think may get some decent points.
 
ElMo said:
That's not a million miles away from my team.

I'm also considering putting Richarlison in, who I've had at points through the season and taking out Pererya. I've also stuck Nasri in as a cheap option who I think may get some decent points.
Click to expand...

He got an assist at the weekend but I wasn't convinced about putting him in until he got back up to speed with the league.

I think I can wait another week with Hazard/Eriksen but it's basically that to Salah + Fraser again.
 
I've got Salah, Pogba, Sterling, Firminho, Rashford, Felipe Anderson as my main attackers.

Binned Allison as Etheridge of Cardiff is much better value. Have had Aubumayang for most of the season but had to sacrifice him for Salah.
 
eastenclosurebear said:
How does the wildcard work?
Click to expand...

You get one free transfer per week after the initial GW1 selection of your 15.

If you transfer two players in GW2, it's your one free transfer plus a 4 point penalty or 4 point hit.

A wildcard is something you can use once in the first half of the season to make as many transfers as you want without penalties and then once in the second half of the season in the same way.

When you play your wildcard, you can transfer all 15 players without any points hits.

Previously, it wasn't one half of the season each and a few people have been caught out by that this year. It used to be you got one you could use at any point of the season and one that could only be used during the January transfer window. I quite like the new system.
 
Papac said:
You get one free transfer per week after the initial GW1 selection of your 15.

If you transfer two players in GW2, it's your one free transfer plus a 4 point penalty or 4 point hit.

A wildcard is something you can use once in the first half of the season to make as many transfers as you want without penalties and then once in the second half of the season in the same way.

When you play your wildcard, you can transfer all 15 players without any points hits.

Previously, it wasn't one half of the season each and a few people have been caught out by that this year. It used to be you got one you could use at any point of the season and one that could only be used during the January transfer window. I quite like the new system.
Click to expand...

Cheers, got a bit of an injury crisis and was thinking of using it, just wasn't sure what I could do with it.
 
Papac said:
He's been playing in the middle of the front 3 that Chelsea are playing to relative success.

Richarlison has been another decent OOP (out of position) option this season so far.

I've always liked adding Scottish players if they're good enough and this season, Robertson and Fraser have been excellent. Patterson playing up front for Cardiff could be an option too.
Click to expand...
yeah have hazard and Richarlison and I'd be more likely to captain hazard than get rid of him this week..... One of those special players who use the big games as motivation to do their best
 
Seen this today:

https://fplreview.com/team-planner/

You put in your team and it gives you an estimate based on bookies odds.

The key to FPL Reviews predictive algorithm is the use of bookmaker odds to forecast player and team performance. The value of the data on the site of course depends on how well it is performing- perhaps it is all just a waste of time. This is what this post aims to understand by use of mounds of data collected.

There are two layers to be investigated before a conclusion can be reached:

How accurately does the FPL Review Team Planner tool forecast future odds? This will be investigated in this post.

How well do bookmaker predictions correlate to FPL Performance? This analysis will be released shortly in a separate post.

Both of these layers must show strong predictive qualities to make the tools on this site worthwhile.

Using & Forecasting Bookmaker Odds

The first step is to understand how I performed this analysis and also how the algorithm works.

Bookmaker odds can be used to forecast player goals, clean sheets and team goals- though margins need to be carefully removed. FPL Review uses this data for 1 GW ahead predictions and historic xG and match data to predicts assists, cards and saves. A bespoke algorithm is used to determine expected bonus points.

For GWs for which the bookmakers odds have not been released the FPL Review algorithm is used. Simply put this algorithm learns from past bookmaker data how to predict future odds.

The Analysis

An initial 5 GW forecast using the Team Planner prior to GW18 is the data which is being investigated. This means GWs 18,19,20,21 & 22 have projections for every FPL player.

GW18 projections are from bookmaker odds, however GWs 19,20,21 & 22 are all deduced from the FPL Review algorithm. To check the accuracy of this data I had to wait until the odds for GW22 had been released. This meant I could compare the data available prior to GW18 to all the actual bookmaker odds.

The Results

The data collected as described above is plotted below. Each data-point represents the 5 GW forecast of an individual player.

https://imgur.com/a/v1MUKLN

There is an incredibly strong correlation (a factor of 0.976 for FPL points, 0.986 for goals and 0.960 for clean sheets) between the FPL Reviews deduced forecast and the actual odds that the bookmakers used. The mean accuracy of the forecast points per player for the full 5 GWs was 95.8%, the median was 96.9%.

This indicates that a 5 GW forecast using the Team Planner tool would typically be expected to achieve ~96% accuracy per player.

Conclusion

For a 5GW forecast the Team Planner tool achieved an average accuracy of 95.8%. With this kind of accuracy it is fair to say the FPL Review bookmaker learning algorithm is doing what it has set out to do and the Team Planner tool has an exceptional value.

This data should give regulars users of the FPL Review tool-set an extra sense of confidence when using these tools to aid decisions.

My next post will look into just how effective using bookmaker odds is in FPL.
Click to expand...
 
Love a bit of FPL. Sitting around 26k at the minute. Made a massive faux pas this week by using my two free transfers early, got TAA in and was confirmed injured very next morning. Trying to avoid taking a hit as I think many will this week but my bench is awful so hopefully no line up surprises or other injuries!
 
My 3rd season doing it and by far the worst first half of a season I've had.

Currently 17th in a 30+ player league so not good.

Used my second wildcard already just last week which sees me struggling. I decided to change it up and go heavy on strikers with Kane, Aguero & Rashford.

Kane's injured & Aguero struggling to get back in the team after struggling fitness wise before wolves.

This week iv taken Richarlson & Kane out - Pogba & Frimino in with a 4 point hit.

Good thread this.
 
SOB-WATP said:
My 3rd season doing it and by far the worst first half of a season I've had.

Currently 17th in a 30+ player league so not good.

Used my second wildcard already just last week which sees me struggling. I decided to change it up and go heavy on strikers with Kane, Aguero & Rashford.

Kane's injured & Aguero struggling to get back in the team after struggling fitness wise before wolves.

This week iv taken Richarlson & Kane out - Pogba & Frimino in with a 4 point hit.

Good thread this.
Click to expand...

I'm trying to pick between Firmino and Aguero to replace Kane. As you've said Aguero might be second choice to Jesus and I think others have pointed out that Firmino is playing a bit deeper this season. I've read that some guys are considering adding in Llorente with Kane and Son out but that just sounds like a gamble. Aubameyang is the third/fourth option but it's a tough game for them.
 
Papac said:
I'm trying to pick between Firmino and Aguero to replace Kane. As you've said Aguero might be second choice to Jesus and I think others have pointed out that Firmino is playing a bit deeper this season. I've read that some guys are considering adding in Llorente with Kane and Son out but that just sounds like a gamble. Aubameyang is the third/fourth option but it's a tough game for them.
Click to expand...

Yeah Llorente is a good shout but I think Spurs might struggle going forward without Son & Kane which made me go with Frimino.

Frimino has been playing deeper but he's still capable of scoring a goal or 2, especially at Anfield. Plus not many of the teams im chasing have him so felt I had to bring him in.

Hoping Guardiola puts Aguero back in but I'm not confident.
 
I love playing it and run a cash league which i think a few from on here take part in , i'm having a horrendous season though
 
Team currently is;

Ederson

Alonso
Pereira (Leicester)
Stones

Pogba
Salah
Richarlison
Bernardo Silva
Pereyra (Watford)

Firminho
Rashford

Jimenez from Wolves on my bench to swap with Pereyra to go 3-4-3.

Choking to play my wildcard, quite a costly defence which I could sub out and hopefully upgrade Bernardo Silva to Sterling and try afford Hazard.
 
Papac said:
I'm npw leaning towards a 4 point hit and putting in Salah/Llorente for Richarlison and Kane.

The tool above predicts that should be a good move.
Click to expand...

I've binned Paterson, Warnock wanting to rest him and they've signed a striker from Everton.

Stuck Brooks from Bournemouth in.
 
Papac said:
Decided to go with the wildcard tonight:

1aDrSXb.png


I'm pretty sure that I'll be trying to bring in a better forward than Wilson/Jimenez pretty soon but hoping that the midfield four there will be good enough.
Click to expand...

There's not many forwards with over 100 points at the moment so you're quite right to go top heavy in midfield I'd say.
 
316on6f.jpg


This week's team but got time to change it.

Looks like Alexander Arnold is fit so may swap him for Digne.
sure about Aguero and if he will start, worried they might stick with Jesus. Therefore Aubameyang is an option but tough game vs Chelsea. Do I bring in Jimenez and put another midfielder - Sane most likely.
Also scope to swap out Pereyra, most likely for Richarlison.

Or do I stop over thinking it and keep it as is... :))o_O
 
ElMo said:
This week's team but got time to change it.

Looks like Alexander Arnold is fit so may swap him for Digne.
sure about Aguero and if he will start, worried they might stick with Jesus. Therefore Aubameyang is an option but tough game vs Chelsea. Do I bring in Jimenez and put another midfielder - Sane most likely.
Also scope to swap out Pereyra, most likely for Richarlison.

Or do I stop over thinking it and keep it as is... :))o_O
Click to expand...

Aguero, Firmino and Rashford looks much better than Wilson, Jimenez and Rashford.

If Aguero was definitely going to start every week then he'd be in my team.

I'm worried that Jesus' recent form is going to limit/stop Aguero from starting.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Latest posts

Back
Top