For the stattos: our SPFL goals to corner kick ratios

C

Charing

Well-Known Member
Over our 12 fixtures so far we have won 86 corners and scored from 4. A 4.65% success rate.
We have conceded 34 corners and lost a goal from 1 of them (An o.g. at Motherwell). A 97.06% defensive success rate.
Most corners won in a single game 14 ( St Mirren & Ross County). Least conceded 0 at Livingston.
Least corners won 3 at Hamilton. Most corners conceded 7 at Motherwell.
On 9 occasions we have won more corners than opposition , best being 14 to 1 v St Mirren. On 3 occasions the opposition has won more corners worst being 6 to 3 in Hamilton's favour ( at Motherwell & Hibs the other two occasions).
By way of comparison our
nearest rivals ( after 11 fixtures) have won 66 corners and scored once. They have conceded 41 corners and conceded 1 goal.
So we score roughly after every 21 corners. Since our last conversion at Motherwell ( Itten) we have won 24 corners without a goal. So by this 12 game ratio we're due one at Kilmarnock on Sunday.
Congratulations if you've got this far without falling asleep.
Bored to tiers in Lockdown Glasgow Town.
 
This is taking me back. I think on average you’re about 30 corners for a goal and teams, on average, only score 3 goals a season from corners. So we’ve probably already blew our load :))

FWIW I don’t think we’re the “average” team and I fully expect us to put up big numbers in the goals from corners category. We clearly work very hard on our set pieces and routines to gain an advantage.
 
Per Modern Fitba's excellent SPFL Statistics, we've created 4.05xG from Indirect free kicks and corners this season. That accounts for 14.8% of our xG created.

However, we've conceded 1.51xG from corners, which is 30% of our total xG conceded.

Conclusion - we're okay at scoring from these opportunities, but defending them is a weakness.
 
Big Buff said:
Per Modern Fitba's excellent SPFL Statistics, we've created 4.05xG from Indirect free kicks and corners this season. That accounts for 14.8% of our xG created.

However, we've conceded 1.51xG from corners, which is 30% of our total xG conceded.

Conclusion - we're okay at scoring from these opportunities, but defending them is a weakness.
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Lies, damn lies and statistics.

We've conceded 4 goals all season. 4. That does not signify any defensive weakness. Given the goal lost from a corner hit our own player on face and went in, it shows that this one incident is clearly an anomaly.
 
Craigie said:
Lies, damn lies and statistics.

We've conceded 4 goals all season. 4. That does not signify any defensive weakness. Given the goal lost from a corner hit our own player on face and went in, it shows that this one incident is clearly an anomaly.
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To be clear, when I say weakness, I'm talking about a relative weakness in the context of how we defend overall.

Our xG conceded from set plays is 1.51, which is the best in the league (Celtic 1.61, Motherwell 2.45)

But considering we face significantly less corners than Motherwell, we're clearly not defending them as well as they do.

It's not a major thing. Overall, this is the best defensive Rangers team I can remember for a long time. But there are still things we can improve on, and I'm sure Culshaw will be working on that.

EDIT: Again, can't recommend Modern Fitba enough, which is where these statistics are sourced from. Please check them out and consider subscribing for access: http://www.modernfitba.com
 
Big Buff said:
To be clear, when I say weakness, I'm talking about a relative weakness in the context of how we defend overall.

Our xG conceded from set plays is 1.51, which is the best in the league (Celtic 1.61, Motherwell 2.45)

But considering we face significantly less corners than Motherwell, we're clearly not defending them as well as they do.

It's not a major thing. Overall, this is the best defensive Rangers team I can remember for a long time. But there are still things we can improve on, and I'm sure Culshaw will be working on that.

EDIT: Again, can't recommend Modern Fitba enough, which is where these statistics are sourced from. Please check them out and consider subscribing for access: http://www.modernfitba.com
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It also highlights that, while informative, the naked eye is usually a better judge than bare statistics.

"But considering we face significantly less corners than Motherwell, we're clearly not defending them as well as they do." Surely not conceding corners is the best way to defend them?
 
Craigie said:
It also highlights that, while informative, the naked eye is usually a better judge than bare statistics.

"But considering we face significantly less corners than Motherwell, we're clearly not defending them as well as they do." Surely not conceding corners is the best way to defend them?
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You need a combination of the eye test and statistics. But we haven't been great at defending corners for a while now. One of the aspects of our game plan against Celtic was to defend in a way that we didn't concede any corners whatsoever - it was noticeable. I think they had one the whole game. And that's good tactics - hiding your weaknesses.

Yes, not conceding corners is the best way to defend them. But you can't do that forever. Eventually, we just have to get better at defending them.
 
Craigie said:
Lies, damn lies and statistics.

We've conceded 4 goals all season. 4. That does not signify any defensive weakness. Given the goal lost from a corner hit our own player on face and went in, it shows that this one incident is clearly an anomaly.
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how anyone can say we are weak defensively is beyond me mate

we probably have the best defence record in Europe this season

statos check this please
 
two2tango said:
how anyone can say we are weak defensively is beyond me mate

we probably have the best defence record in Europe this season

statos check this please
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He didn’t say we were weak defensively though? He said defending set pieces is a (relative) weakness. Which it is imo. You only had to look on here at the run up to the OF game where posters were talking about the threat Duffy/Julien etc posed from corners.

I think we’ve improved defending them but if someone asked me what a team’s best chance would be to score against us, it wouldn’t be from attacking build up play, or from a counter attack, it would be from a set piece.

Just because it’s our “weakness” doesn’t mean we’re weak at it :)
 
WinkieWATP said:
Do those stats take into account second balls or does the corner have to be headed straight in?

The Xgoals stats puzzle me a little tbh :))
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Given the relative lack of goals coming direct from a corner suggests some sence in taking them short.
Im sure Ive seen stats that show more goals are scored this way
 
WinkieWATP said:
Do those stats take into account second balls or does the corner have to be headed straight in?

The Xgoals stats puzzle me a little tbh :))
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I can’t answer the first one as it might depend on the source of the data. I’d lean towards it being direct but can’t say for sure.

xG is basically if the average player was taking that exact shot, what’s the likelihood of it being a goal. Different sources will have different calculations for figuring it out but that’s the basic premise of the thinking behind it. Knowing that figure means you can see if your players are potentially underperforming or over performing.
 
Super A said:
Given the relative lack of goals coming direct from a corner suggests some sence in taking them short.
Im sure Ive seen stats that show more goals are scored this way
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There's some evidence for that, but I think the best way to score from set pieces is to draw up plays like you do in basketball.

The objective is to either get a man free, or get a mismatch in your favour. Teams with big haddies generally don't need to do this because they generate mismatches anyway through sheer size.

I'm surprised we don't see more of what the Americans call "pick plays" at corners. This is where you take one of your attackers and sacrifice him, using him to block the marker of another player, therefore giving him a free shot.

I did actually see us do this recently, but I'm surprised teams in general don't do this more often.
 
Id like to see the stats for our throw ins. We dont seem very good at maintaining possession from them. This is odd for a team such as ours that values possession.

What do others think?
 
Degausser said:
I can’t answer the first one as it might depend on the source of the data. I’d lean towards it being direct but can’t say for sure.

xG is basically if the average player was taking that exact shot, what’s the likelihood of it being a goal. Different sources will have different calculations for figuring it out but that’s the basic premise of the thinking behind it. Knowing that figure means you can see if your players are potentially underperforming or over performing.
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Sometimes you see it on MOTD when the stats are being displayed. Home team wins 2-0 but the Xgoals for the home side can be 0.79 and the away team 2.5.

Like I said earlier it puzzles me. :)
 
WinkieWATP said:
Sometimes you see it on MOTD when the stats are being displayed. Home team wins 2-0 but the Xgoals for the home side can be 0.79 and the away team 2.5.

Like I said earlier it puzzles me. :)
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Lets take Aberdeen's second goal from last week as an example:


It's not a corner, but it will explain the logic behind how xG accounts for things like this.

In this attack, Cosgrove takes the first shot, but Bain spills it and Hedges knocks it into an open net. Now you might be thinking, Aberdeen had two shots there, but one wouldn't have been created without the other taking place. So it's not right to simply take the xG for both shots and add them together - because the second was almost an open goal, so you'd have an xG of about 0.3 for Cosgrove and 0.9 for Hedges, which means that attack was 120% likely to result in a goal. Doesn't make sense, right?

Well, what actually happens in the event of multiple shots in the same attack is that they take the probability of those shots *not* being scored, multiply them to get the overall chance of *not* scoring from that attack, and then use the inverse to get an xG value. Because the objective is to measure how likely Aberdeen were to score a goal. I think it was calculated that Aberdeen were 97% likely to score from that attack, either from Cosgroves shot or (more likely) Hedges' tap in.

The same logic applies to set pieces.
 
Re the OP, before I dozed off I meant to add-
Goal 1) corner kick taker Tavernier, scorer Morelos ( St Mirren)
Goal 2) taker Tav scorer Aribo ( St Johnstone)
Goal 3) taker Davis scorer Hagi ( Hamilton)
Goal 4) taker Tav scorer Itton ( Motherwell)
So no centre-back scorers as you might expect.
BTW these stats weren't taken from some fancy Dan website. They were manually hewn from cold print by my own hand.
I've since thoroughly washed them.
 
WinkieWATP said:
Sometimes you see it on MOTD when the stats are being displayed. Home team wins 2-0 but the Xgoals for the home side can be 0.79 and the away team 2.5.

Like I said earlier it puzzles me. :)
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MOTD et al display these numbers but very rarely contextualise them - which doesn’t help anyone!

If we take your example - home team wins 2-0 with the xG being 0.79 for the home team and 2.5 for the away team. The xG numbers are telling you, on average, how likely the chances each team took were likely to result in a goal. So the home team overproduced as they scored two actual goals compared to their 0.79 xG. This means either they got lucky (maybe the keeper had a howler?) or they were clinical with their chances. The inverse is true for the away team as they’ve massively underperformed compared to the chances they creates. Maybe they were unlucky (home keeper played a blinder and saved everything?) or maybe they were very wasteful (had someone like Stevie May up front).

Where is becomes important isn’t just in reviewing one off games, but comparing the trends over multiple games. If the home team keep on scoring more goals than the xG predicts then they probably have a super star striker but need to watch out for their results dropping if he gets injured/suspended/loses form. If the away team keep regularly under producing then they need to look at why (maybe they buy a new striker for example).

Hope this all made sense!
 
As a gambling man I've found corners to be the biggest anomaly in football, not in terms of goals from them but the numbers in general. They never seem to follow much of a pattern, can have well balanced games but one team is way ahead on corners and you can have end to end action packed 7 goal thrillers with about 2 total. One day I'll learn to stop backing them
 
On average a goal every 21 corners. We have went 24 corners since scoring therefore in my book - £10 on scoring from a corner tonight!
 
Charing said:
Over our 12 fixtures so far we have won 86 corners and scored from 4. A 4.65% success rate.
We have conceded 34 corners and lost a goal from 1 of them (An o.g. at Motherwell). A 97.06% defensive success rate.
Most corners won in a single game 14 ( St Mirren & Ross County). Least conceded 0 at Livingston.
Least corners won 3 at Hamilton. Most corners conceded 7 at Motherwell.
On 9 occasions we have won more corners than opposition , best being 14 to 1 v St Mirren. On 3 occasions the opposition has won more corners worst being 6 to 3 in Hamilton's favour ( at Motherwell & Hibs the other two occasions).
By way of comparison our
nearest rivals ( after 11 fixtures) have won 66 corners and scored once. They have conceded 41 corners and conceded 1 goal.
So we score roughly after every 21 corners. Since our last conversion at Motherwell ( Itten) we have won 24 corners without a goal. So by this 12 game ratio we're due one at Kilmarnock on Sunday.
Congratulations if you've got this far without falling asleep.
Bored to tiers in Lockdown Glasgow Town.
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I remember a stat when warburton was there and it was out of every 100 corners the average was 5 scored.
 
Since we scored from a corner kick at the weekend I thought a wee update was in order for those with nothing better to do.
From our 18 fixtures so far we've won 142 corners and scored from 5. A success rate of 3.52% We've conceded 49 corners and still only lost a goal from one of those. A defensive success rate of 97.96%.
We added to our highest tally of 14 corners against Motherwell last week and have since achieved conceding no corners another twice- v Hamilton at Ibrox and at Ross County.
We now score on average after 28 corners. So anytime we win a corner over the festive period might be a good time to put on the kettle/ pour a half. Although you know what they say about London buses....
 
Paisleybear30 said:
As a gambling man I've found corners to be the biggest anomaly in football, not in terms of goals from them but the numbers in general. They never seem to follow much of a pattern, can have well balanced games but one team is way ahead on corners and you can have end to end action packed 7 goal thrillers with about 2 total. One day I'll learn to stop backing them
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It’s the one market where there can be a decent difference in prices in the top matches. Do them myself and have done for 15 years odd now. Still amazing how different they can run to the match at times.
Man U match on Sunday had 24 I think, equalled the most I had ever seen in a match which was Bayern v Real around 2004.
 
Scoot1975 said:
4 goals from 86 corners??

I hope they are mastering that in training tbf
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That was in October, our ratio of goals from corners is slightly lower now if you read the later post updating the figures.

However - and I may be incorrect - I'm sure I read an article stating that the average number of times a goal was scored arising from a corner kick was 3%. So we might actually be above average - even now.
 
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In the stats book Why Everything You know About Football Is Wrong where they looked at the top 5 leagues in Europe a goal is only scored every 10 games from a corner. That was why the Spanish team that won a WC & 2 Euro's always took short corners, not because of the lack of height in the team. Mourinho when he came to Chelsea couldn't understand why English fans got so excited when they won a corner.
 
Big Buff said:
Per Modern Fitba's excellent SPFL Statistics, we've created 4.05xG from Indirect free kicks and corners this season. That accounts for 14.8% of our xG created.

However, we've conceded 1.51xG from corners, which is 30% of our total xG conceded.

Conclusion - we're okay at scoring from these opportunities, but defending them is a weakness.
Click to expand...
Except the actual goals conceded and goals scored show these stats to be balls :D
 
Marvellous Marvin said:
After I found out the ratio of goals to corners (approx 3 per 100) it always amuses me when fans celebrate corners.
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One of the things Warburton got right.
Even now, we’re more likely to score from open play than corners.
So, unless we have a specific threat, I won’t be too excited when we get a corners.
Free kicks from wider positions?
That’s a bit different.
 
Charing said:
Over our 12 fixtures so far we have won 86 corners and scored from 4. A 4.65% success rate.
We have conceded 34 corners and lost a goal from 1 of them (An o.g. at Motherwell). A 97.06% defensive success rate.
Most corners won in a single game 14 ( St Mirren & Ross County). Least conceded 0 at Livingston.
Least corners won 3 at Hamilton. Most corners conceded 7 at Motherwell.
On 9 occasions we have won more corners than opposition , best being 14 to 1 v St Mirren. On 3 occasions the opposition has won more corners worst being 6 to 3 in Hamilton's favour ( at Motherwell & Hibs the other two occasions).
By way of comparison our
nearest rivals ( after 11 fixtures) have won 66 corners and scored once. They have conceded 41 corners and conceded 1 goal.
So we score roughly after every 21 corners. Since our last conversion at Motherwell ( Itten) we have won 24 corners without a goal. So by this 12 game ratio we're due one at Kilmarnock on Sunday.
Congratulations if you've got this far without falling asleep.
Bored to tiers in Lockdown Glasgow Town.
Click to expand...

I wish we could try some long throw ins even if we cant get as far as others at least get the ball in the box. Most of our throw ins are pretty hopeless.
 
Tom1974 said:
In the stats book Why Everything You know About Football Is Wrong where they looked at the top 5 leagues in Europe a goal is only scored every 10 games from a corner. That was why the Spanish team that won a WC & 2 Euro's always took short corners, not because of the lack of height in the team. Mourinho when he came to Chelsea couldn't understand why English fans got so excited when they won a corner.
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I’d love to know what it is by Club and League now.

Funny mind, the goal that got Spain to the WC Final was a header from a corner.
 
Big Buff said:
Per Modern Fitba's excellent SPFL Statistics, we've created 4.05xG from Indirect free kicks and corners this season. That accounts for 14.8% of our xG created.

However, we've conceded 1.51xG from corners, which is 30% of our total xG conceded.

Conclusion - we're okay at scoring from these opportunities, but defending them is a weakness.
Click to expand...

That's still an amazingly low xGA from defending corners over 18 league games though.

Set pieces aren't easy to defend, especially in this league where so many teams are set up mainly to benefit from them.
 
Goldson's goal rate is good for a centre back but in all honesty he has a heid like e threepenny bit a lot of the time.
 
Charing said:
Since we scored from a corner kick at the weekend I thought a wee update was in order for those with nothing better to do.
From our 18 fixtures so far we've won 142 corners and scored from 5. A success rate of 3.52% We've conceded 49 corners and still only lost a goal from one of those. A defensive success rate of 97.96%.
We added to our highest tally of 14 corners against Motherwell last week and have since achieved conceding no corners another twice- v Hamilton at Ibrox and at Ross County.
We now score on average after 28 corners. So anytime we win a corner over the festive period might be a good time to put on the kettle/ pour a half. Although you know what they say about London buses....
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Doesn't scream "relative weakness" to me.
 
Degausser said:
He didn’t say we were weak defensively though? He said defending set pieces is a (relative) weakness. Which it is imo. You only had to look on here at the run up to the OF game where posters were talking about the threat Duffy/Julien etc posed from corners.

I think we’ve improved defending them but if someone asked me what a team’s best chance would be to score against us, it wouldn’t be from attacking build up play, or from a counter attack, it would be from a set piece.

Just because it’s our “weakness” doesn’t mean we’re weak at it :)
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Those posters worrying about Duffy look pretty silly right now! Ha ha
 
Craigie said:
Doesn't scream "relative weakness" to me.
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Aye. Define weakness?

Teams rarely get in our box thus when they win a corner it gifts them a rare opportunity to get a ball into our box with a significant number of their players to find.

Its not that we are "relatively weak at defending corners. Its that corners over represent within the opposition's attacking opportunities against us.

Especially when you then here we are not conceding a goal from 98% of them.
 
Super A said:
Given the relative lack of goals coming direct from a corner suggests some sence in taking them short.
Im sure Ive seen stats that show more goals are scored this way
Click to expand...
I've said this before. If you set up for a short corner you take one attacker out of the mix and two defenders. Therefore it increases your advantage whichever way you play it
 
Thought our success rate would be higher than that. I think we a are a far greater threat at corners this season.
 
Would be interested to see the stats for direct free kick attempts at goal. I think we're very dangerous with those but it's still probably only a small proportion that are successsful. I can't remember when we last conceded a goal from one.
 
Since I'm doing nowt better, and I suspect you may not be either, a New Year update..
And also because of some alarming stats. Hibs became the first visiting team this season to win most corners- 8 to our 5. 8 is the highest number conceded so far.
This was followed by our worst corner kick performance at Paisley, being 6 to 1 for St Mirren. That game yielded our least corners won.
More alarmingly (imo) after scoring we seem to be handing the initiative to the opposition and the recent corner kick count seems to be a consequence.
Anyway latest stats from our 21 SPFL fixtures-
Corners won 153. Scored 5. Success rate 3.26%
Corners conceded 65. Goals lost 1. A defensive success rate of 98.47%. So when we concede a corner tomorrow..relax (!!!).
To finish on a positive note, they are on the ropes. Any kind of victory for us and they're on the floor. And they won't be getting back up.
Happy New Year everybody and here's to 3 points tomorrow. Whatever the corner count.
 
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I would be alarmed if we lost the 3 points by 6 corners to 1. But we scored more goals. So...
 
After Captain Calamity's marvellous own goal, it would seem remiss not to update.
22 fixtures-
Corners won 155. Scored 6. A success rate of 3.87%
On average a goal from every 26th corner.
Corners conceded 71. Goals lost 1. A defensive success rate of 98.60%
I therefore greeted every corner conceded yesterday with a casual laugh.
For the third game in a row yesterday opposition won most corners -6 to 2. I must admit to still being a bit concerned about the way the opposition has been able to impose their game on us recently.
Well as concerned as any man can be while turning cartwheels.
 
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