How much is tonight’s game worth to us?

mdingwall

mdingwall

Administrator
How much is tonight’s game worth to us?

I asked Lee, one of the FF lads, to have a nosey around the UeFa regulations and other sources of info and coke up with some numbers. Be aware there are some variables and unknowns involved.



Ok lads a few wee points. I've speculated a bit and also included projections of what I think this team could achieve in the respective competitions. As ever I'm choosing to be optimistic. I appreciate not everyone will be

As you can imagine the CL is where it's at. Even if we don't get to the group stage it is absolutely imperative that we make it past this mob tonight.

CL Play Off Stage

£4.23m + gate receipts for going out at this stage. Obviously we don't get the £4.23m if we qualify but, you are talking the guts of £6m there plus the gate from tonight. It's not what we would all want but it's still a healthy figure.

CL Group Stage
£13.23m + Gates + bonus money for wins and draws + coefficient + TV money

£2.3m for a win
£900k for a draw.

£960k per coefficient share. Unfortunately with this the scum are still ahead of us and there are already another 2 teams between us and them who have qualified. This means that they will have at least 3 shares more than us or £2.7m. this could of course end up being more depending on who qualifies and their ranking.

TV money - best guess so far is £6m for Scotland. It's the Record so I'm loathe to consider it as factual however when you look at what the scum previously earned, relative to what the TV pool has now been cut to 600m to 300m overall I don't think this is far away. Should we qualify the pot is split in two and we get 45% of the first half with the remaining half distributed depending on performance. In real terms it means we could earn more TV money than them despite receiving less of the original share.

To put it into context, if we were to win 1 game and draw two in the CL groups you are looking at around £25m and that's before you consider if that record would be enough to get us 3rd and then into the EL knock-out phase. If it was we would then earn from that prize pool and of course sell out at least another tie or two.

Optimistically a figure of £30m + is achievable in that scenario.

Europa League
EL as you can imagine is considerably less initially but, you CAN return good sums if you go deep in the competition.

£3m for group stage
£500k for a win
£200k draw
Plus bonuses for qualifying for each round.

Coefficient is only £100k per share meaning the highest ranked team takes in £3.2m. This is in comparison to the £36m Real Madrid will net for the CL number 1 spot.

TV money is considerably less as you would imagine (less than half of that for the CL). Impossible to calculate as a lot of factors at stake including whether the filth drop down or not. Reasonable to expect at least £2m from this though and that would obviously increase the further we went.

The big difference is we can go a bit further in this competition which means more games, more bonuses and more gate receipts.

With EL I'm not greedy, I don't expect us to make the final every year but, I think quarters is a reasonable target now based on our last 4 years. Basing it on a group campaign of 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, the figure would stand at around £18.5m if we go out tonight. £22.5m if we make it through but go out at CL play off stage.

Hope all of that makes sense. As said was a little bored and my mind wandered thinking of different scenarios.

In the here and now though? Tonight is a £6m game of football.
 
If we don't get through tonight but do reasonably well in the EL, we'd be about £10m down which isn't a disaster, more of a disappointment. Our new players may develop better playing EL teams which is my personal view, rather than getting the run around by the CL teams, and we'd have a better chance of improving our coefficient.
 
Jan Wyck said:
Much less than it will cost in prestige if we don't qualify.

We have at least to have the opportunity to go head to head with PSV or Monaco to maintain last years gains in our reputation in Europe. Even a tie against the above will be a £1m game.
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I live overseas, and here, in terms of football, the Champions League is the only show in town.

I will be so gutted if we exit tonight, as USG are not even good enough to survive the play-offs.
 
instructor said:
If we don't get through tonight but do reasonably well in the EL, we'd be about £10m down which isn't a disaster, more of a disappointment. Our new players may develop better playing EL teams which is my personal view, rather than getting the run around by the CL teams, and we'd have a better chance of improving our coefficient.
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and we'd have a better chance of improving our coefficient.

You mean so that tgu can gain automatic entry again in the future? No thanks!
 
the sums of money really show the value good timing in terms of transfer business. we should be getting our targets in as early as possible in the summer even so they're ready for the qualifiers, even if it means we pay a little more. and would it really have been so hard to tell ajax and southampton that bassey and aribo are all theirs AFTER our qualifying business is completed. even if it means knocking a wee bit off their price to compensate for the delay.
 
I think the EL has been good to us so I'm less worried than I thought I'd be. The disappointment is just that after last season I truly believed teams like that would just be fodder. But the loss of Aribo and Bassey were clearly bigger than we expected and their replacements hitting the ground running hasn't happened.
 
instructor said:
If we don't get through tonight but do reasonably well in the EL, we'd be about £10m down which isn't a disaster, more of a disappointment. Our new players may develop better playing EL teams which is my personal view, rather than getting the run around by the CL teams, and we'd have a better chance of improving our coefficient.
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I think if we went out to PSV or Monaco I could probably swallow it a bit easier. This lot shouldn't be touching us.

Your points are pretty valid mind you but, I don't think we should be shying away from the CL for fear of a doing.
 
We lost a league we shouldn't have, and were a kick away from automatic qualification. There is still a tie to play if we do get through but if we don't get through it will be a complete sickener.
 
Realistically when all is said and done the difference between CL football and Europa for us is somewhere between £8 to £12 mill, dependant on results. It’s a big sum but it’s not the be all and end all the way the press make out.
 
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gd93 said:
the sums of money really show the value good timing in terms of transfer business. we should be getting our targets in as early as possible in the summer even so they're ready for the qualifiers, even if it means we pay a little more. and would it really have been so hard to tell ajax and southampton that bassey and aribo are all theirs AFTER our qualifying business is completed. even if it means knocking a wee bit off their price to compensate for the delay.
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We only signed players for money after the Aribo & Bassey deals were arranged. So how could we get players in the door earlier while holding onto Bassey & Aribo?
 
gd93 said:
the sums of money really show the value good timing in terms of transfer business. we should be getting our targets in as early as possible in the summer even so they're ready for the qualifiers, even if it means we pay a little more. and would it really have been so hard to tell ajax and southampton that bassey and aribo are all theirs AFTER our qualifying business is completed. even if it means knocking a wee bit off their price to compensate for the delay.
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It’s the old doubled sided dildo effect! Spend the money and don’t get CL and we are left with a hole, or don’t and edge out bets safely. Us and then really are at loss either way in Scotland when budgeting unfortunately.
 
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