Is Scotland’s population size really the reason?

grahamdavid

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EURO 2020

Croatia represent an obstacle to overcome but also an example to follow for Scotland​


Modric has set the standard for outstanding individual talent

Modric has set the standard for outstanding individual talent
AP

Population features prominently in post mortems of Scotland’s international football performances. How can a nation of five million people be expected to compete with, for example, neighbours England, who have ten times that number? Sometimes, as on Friday night, it suits Scotland to play the plucky underdogs punching above their weight.

Yet it’s not a part they can play on Tuesday in their final group game. Croatia pick from a population of four million people and yet made it to the World Cup final three years ago. Their semi-final win over England went down well in Scotland but was far from the only scalp they claimed against the odds. In the group stage, they took maximum points from a section that included Argentina, with apopulation of over 40m, and Nigeria, where it’s estimated at 211m. In the quarter-final, they overcame hosts Russia, who have over 145m people.

So Croatia represent an obstacle to overcome but also a standard to strive for as Scotland seek to make it to the knockout stages of a major tournament for the first time. Closer to home, Wales made light of a 3m population compared to Turkey’s 82m as they comprehensively outplayed them last week. Small nations can prosper, provided they can effectively nurture outstanding individual talents like Gareth Bale and Luka Modric, both currently of Real Madrid.

Scotland have some decent players yet none who can claim to be as technically gifted as Croatia’s captain and playmaker, named man of the match in the 1-1 draw against the Czech Republic, or Bale, who shrugged off missing a penalty to superbly set up Wales’s second goal in the win over Turkey. John McGinn, Scott McTominay, Andy Robertson and Kieran Tierney are all leading players in the English Premier League, yet have not been singled out as the special game-changing talents of the two Spanish club’s giants.

That’s the next challenge for coaches at all levels in Scotland: to produce the transformative performers who push a team beyond where its population suggests it should sit in football’s hierarchy. Perhaps Billy Gilmour, who played with such maturity on his first start for Scotland, can be that star. There are more than a few hints of Modric about Chelsea’s tyro, but he still has plenty to prove, too.

It certainly helps Croatia’s coaches that they have more sunny days per year than any other European nation to work with and that the Balkans has always churned out talented players in ball sports across the board, especially basketball, football, tennis and water polo. Their genes bless a small population with the height, broad shoulders and slim hips of natural athletes. Yet they also make the most of these advantages with a coaching programme that produces more professional-standard players per capita than any other country in Europe.

Chris Docherty, a Scot who worked as an analyst for Hajduk Split last season, has studied Croatian football closely and helped develop their current coaching curriculum. He notes a greater desire in Croatian youngsters than he previously saw when coaching in Scotland.
Gilmour impressed against England but has a long way to go to match Modric

Gilmour impressed against England but has a long way to go to match Modric
IAN MACNICOL/GETTY

“They still have a bigger hunger towards football,” he said. “The economy is worse than ours, the parents are pushing the kids so hard, to the point where they take them out of school. Players will come to the academy, then hire a private coach, do too much training and get injured. They’re all about doing more and the teaching focus is very much on the individual player.”

Later a balance is struck between instilling a team ethic and responsibility without curbing the creative independence which saw Croatia seize control of that semi-final against England after falling behind to Kieran Trippier’s free-kick. “They are very good at managing the players,” added Docherty. “Of course they have tactics, structure, analysis and everything else, but one part of the Croatian culture is they are very creative people. They tend to not really like process and strict rules, so when the players come from the street to the academies they are, by definition, individuals, creative players.


“Science has shown that creativity kind of develops before the age of 12. What the structured system tries to do is mould those young talents into effective team players, who can make decisions on their own. The success of the national team was that the individual qualities of the players was balanced with a fantastic management of the culture and atmosphere of the group and leadership. You had the spirit of never-say-die, which they have in the Balkans, real aggression and passion for the game, plus individual qualities and technique.”

Perhaps Scotland’s system turns youngsters into team players too soon before they have developed properly as creators as technicians. An argument for less rather than more coaching sessions would be a difficult one to win these days, when many youngsters rarely spend quality time alone with a ball between them.

Yet perhaps replicating the sort of street football than produced Jim Baxter and Jimmy Johnstone before harnessing such maverick talents to the greater good is still possible somehow. Scotland can beat Croatia on Tuesday, but they should also learn from them regardless of the result.
 
We are a lazy nation, looking at the amount of kids making it at top level and coming through down south, the hunger seems to have gone from the vast majority. More impoverished youths have the greater hunger to succeed.

Theres no denying we in Scotland have talent but we don’t push it on from 18 onwards.
 
No as look at many other nations of similar size. Emphasis is still placed on kick and rush and the biggest players coming to the fore. In general also there is a bit of a Xenophobic attitude with regards foreign coaches and not too many succeed in Scotland. With still the attitude of the funny forieinger and their new ideas.
 
I think its sort of obvious that the fewer players you have to choose from then the more limited you might be in general, so I don't think we can dismiss that. Obviously though, you can have every single youth playing lots of football, but if the coaching and facilities are shit then you're still going to struggle, regardless of population size.

For a long time we were doing ok at "unders" levels, then bombing at senior level. The thoughts then were that we were obsessed with competition and churning out big (aggressive?) athletes, which would carry you so far at younger levels... meanwhile the other countries were focusing on technique, such that their players would then catch up and overtake us at senior level. I think there's been a lot of emphasis on addressing that approach in recent years. How successful that has been is debatable... it's interesting that up until this year, the last time we were at a major tournament coincided with the introduction of the pro-youth system....

Personally I think there's a tension between a small country having a decent national team and having a decent domestic league. I don't have the stats, maybe I'm wrong... but I suspect that in order to have a decent national side then in general small countries have their better players playing in the bigger leagues. In an ideal world your Gilmours, McGinns and Tierneys would all still be playing up here, for example. I suppose we're aiming for the sweet spot whereby our bigger clubs up here are still able to provide a decent level of domestic football and be competitive in Europe etc... but recognising the better players will always move on. Fundamentally I think we've got that balance wrong for a number of decades now... to me the problem there is the massive gap in TV money, which allows fairly shit English teams to drain decent talent away from here and for those players to not fulfil their potential as a result.

So overall I think its trying to balance population (pool of players to choose from) vs development vs money. At one end of the spectrum you end up with very few decent players, a poor domestic league and a shit national team. At the other you have a couple of stronger domestic teams, but accept that most of your better players leave for leagues that will develop them further and hopefully benefit the national team.


That all said, fūck the SFA and SPFL. They do nothing for the good of the game up here.
 
Population has the square route of f%ck all to do with it, lifestyle, culture, climate and general day today life is Scotlands issue. Facilties for talented kids are 30 years behind compared to countries just across the North Sea, Norway, Sweden, Denmark etc their smallest communities have better facilities for the general public than a large percentage of our top tier clubs. Tells you all you need to know.
 
Eh Croatia a poorer nation than us?? Not according to all the scottish nationalist they say it's a rich independent nation we can be like with independence.
 
F*ck all to do with population. In the last decade, Scotland has been filled with the cancer of corruption, and Liewell and his puppets at the SFA elected to spend the SFA’s money chasing their tails with futile legal advances against Rangers, rather than focussing on grassroots football and nurturing the talent we have in kids as they turn into adults.

It’s everything to do with jealousy, narrow-mindedness, short-sightedness, and corruption!
 
Wales is smaller, Croatia as well. Denmark about the same size.
I think it has nothing to do with population but more to do with cultural and lifestyle choices. Basically we can't be arsed.
 
If you look at Iceland they have 300,000 people and have had players playing at a high level for years.
Scandinavia as a whole have a great set up for kids to play indoors in cold winters but also community clubs to support and provide great facilities for the next generation. We have got a bit better but still
Miles apart, plus the mentality of the Scottish / English kids is different from Scandinavians .
 
Countries who would blooter us, with a population equal to, lesser than, or no more than 10% greater than Scotland's 5.45m.

Uruguay - 3.4m
Croatia - 4.1m
Norway - 5.4m
Denmark - 5.7m

Then we consider teams like world #1 Belgium who have 11m, or current holders Portugal who have 10m.

Population is a lot of utter shite. The problem is the attitude we have in this country and it starts in schools when the lads on the school team get free reign to be absolute arseholes. There is no incentive to be better professionally or personally.
 
We are a lazy nation, looking at the amount of kids making it at top level and coming through down south, the hunger seems to have gone from the vast majority. More impoverished youths have the greater hunger to succeed.

Theres no denying we in Scotland have talent but we don’t push it on from 18 onwards.
They are all too busy wanting to dress up like spice boys and get on it.

Society accepts that most young boys between the ages of 15-18 will want to go and get pished rather than want to play football and excel at it.

Drinking culture and, nowadays, spice boy culture is what stops most of the young kids wanting to dedicate themselves and put that extra effort in to make it as a player. They would rather dress up in the fancy gear, take plenty of photos for the ‘gram and batter their livers in with the soop and act like weekend rockstars.

Fuck all to do with population, it’s to do with attitudes. Scottish kids, in the main when they hit teenage years, have bad attitudes. They want everything landed at their feet, don’t want to put the effort in, they want the maximum out of life for zero work and effort. They want that life, ie, they want the insta life. Money, clothes, women, drink and drugs, etc.

You’ll be hard pushed to find a talent like Billy Gilmour coming through the ranks in the next 5 years. Kids like him, who were once the norm, are now once in a generation. It’s a sad indictment of how Scotland has changed and not for the better.

This is just my perception of young kids and their almost total avoidance to playing football at any reasonable level nowadays.
 
Population is a huge factor but it’s not the main reason.

I’ve got an 8 year old son who plays football for the local club and the biggest problem I see is that the coaches have already decided who they like and the rest of the kids get forgotten about. I think it’s a huge problem that judgments are made on kids far too early and there is a clammer to get kids signed up to teams rather than just enjoying playing. The kids at 8-10 who are discarded might have developed and become brilliant but they will never get the chance
 
Maybe education standards also have an impact.
Fifty years ago we produced the best educated human capital in the UK and as good as anywhere else in Europe.
This led to a young population with the core skills and motivations to pursue life and a career with better commitment and dedication.
Our football players went south in huge numbers and were successful, and in every other avenue of industry and profession Scots often excelled.

Scotland has adopted too many of the worst aspects of left-wing nanny state ideology and instead of creating hungry smart children, we are producing dumbed-down, lazy, teat-sucking whiners who lack the educational tools to invest in long term aspirations, preferring the comfort of short term self-gratification.

Left-wing politics has destroyed Scotland.
 
Cannot be attributed to population in any way shape or form. Look at New Zealand when it comes to rugby.

Our FA is a joke. More interested in job preservation than actual progress. The "football" that our club teams play should see football stopped. That's what's holding us back.
 
Not wanting to disagree with anyone’s points here , but I think Scotland produces plenty of footballers , & plenty of highly talented footballers into the bargain, getting the right platform for 16/21 year old players is something we don’t seem to do all that well , there are exceptions , but if the likes of Ajax sell a player , they bring his replacement from their youth set up .

I’d love Rangers to bring two players into the squad from youth every season & see how that works out .

We seem to have a decent crop just now , the blue heaven period a fair few got their chance with decent results, certainly for the players.
 
How can Scotland compete with a population the size of England?

England are cricket world champions.
India aren't.

Australia with a population of around 25 million has more titles than England, Pakistan and India combined.

A simple look at recent international football tournaments with the relative success of Croatia, Iceland, Wales and Northern Ireland utterly destroys the population myth.
 
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Population has the square route of f%ck all to do with it, lifestyle, culture, climate and general day today life is Scotlands issue. Facilties for talented kids are 30 years behind compared to countries just across the North Sea, Norway, Sweden, Denmark etc their smallest communities have better facilities for the general public than a large percentage of our top tier clubs. Tells you all you need to know.
Iceland is also a good example
 
Commitment to the profession. Beer & Girls take precedent. Many kids think they've "made it" with a few 1st team appearances and don't build on it.
Coaching. Coaching the Skills and technique need much more focus. Physicality is required but it shouldn't be the main attribute that it appears to be with most Coaches in Scotland.
 
It a lazy excuse that I hate our problems are many from parents and coaches at youth level shouting get stuck in, let him know your there, get the baw up the park to 8/9 year old kids. A 12 team top league that's stale and boring where clubs outside the top two would rather sign non league hammer throwers than bring youth players in who are technically good but not physical. We have part time refs who let heavy challenges go without a booking could you imagine the change in football in the country if refs were told to ref games like there European counterparts the game up here would change massively also relegating the biggest team in the country had a massive affect on the game here and we're probably just starting to see the recovery with that. Ask any European coach to give one word to describe scottish football and each one will say physical and that has to change for me.
 
All you need to do is look at Iceland. Tiny population but a hige emphasis on sport. They put a lot of money and resources into good quality pitches and training for their kids and push them to succeed.

Here you are lucky to find a grass pitch with the goals up and cut grass even duting summer.
 
imo it's the ludicrous allowances and choices made by match officials in Scotland.
About a decade ago, for some reason our match officials stopped being on the same wavelength as those in England.

Up until that time, a bad tackle in Scotland was punished the same way as was a bad tackle in England.
We've seen in the last ten years or so how appalling hacks and assaults and clear dives are treated by Scottish refs and linesmen.
I'm not saying that such things don't happen in England.
But they don't regularly happen at their top level, to the same degree as we see in Scottish top matches.

So ... good, skillful players are kicked about in Scotland until they can escape to another country's league.
Hackers and fairly talentless thugs rule the roost by bringing the entire level of the game down to a clogging match.

For some reason, this season gone, we saw refs actually protect skillful players to some degree, and thus we saw some remarkable skills from guys like Kent & Aribo, etc.

But until our refs decide to consistently and equitably apply the Rules of the game and bring the game back into "football" rather than "thugball", we'll never develop good players in our leagues.
Which means that there wil be less to shine here, then go abroad and flouriosh there.
 
Population has been trotted out as an excuse for as long as I can remember - part of the Nationalist narrative of being downtrodden and outnumbered.
 
All you need to do is look at Iceland. Tiny population but a hige emphasis on sport. They put a lot of money and resources into good quality pitches and training for their kids and push them to succeed.

Here you are lucky to find a grass pitch with the goals up and cut grass even duting summer.
In Largs the National Sports Centre has all weather pitches lying empty most of the time.

Kids teams get charged £60 to use one.

The facilities have already been paid for through taxation. Why do we have to pay again to use the National Sports Centre?

The name is a bit of an oxymoron.

:(
 
Scotland tried to get rid of its biggest club 9 years ago and even now indulges its own enemy still determined to thieve historic titles off us.
We will lose to Croatia , get knocked out of the tournament without scoring a single goal and this will be seen as a success. Football in this country mirrors the political disaster going on all around us.
 
Quality of domestic league doesn't hold up either. Welsh and Icelandic leagues are atrocious.

The money in the game in Scotland is spread out too thin. Too many clubs. Too many facilities. Too many coaches. Apply the same amount of resources to a more focused group and better results would result. If you combined the resources of Forfar, Raith and Dunfermline would they not have a better stadium, better training facilities better scouting and generally better quality of player?

Improve the quality of player and you improve the the quality of domestic competition. Which may result in better performance in Europe. Resulting in more money in to the game through prize money and transfer fees. and repeat. That should all lead to better quality national team. But it doesn't guarantee success.
 
Last time was 71 years ago, when the World Cup was very different.

Population is an important factor but it's obviously not everything.
Uruguay were 4th in 1954, 1970, and 2010. So a low population is no drawback for Uruguay.

Conversely China can't hack it.

So it's not population. It's attitude, application, the willingness to learn, a pool of talent, management, and on and on and on.

Scotland just don't have it.
 
The way we play in Scotland is not conducive to developing youngsters between 18-22.

Maybe if our domestic game wasnt so physical, younger players would be able to develop without hammer throwers kicking and elbowing lumps out of them.

A clampdown by referees on thuggish play would help.
 
I used to help run my sons primary school team and we had a goalie who was unbelievable. But when it came to picking players for the "county" teams 2 gym teachers from Paisley used to pick most of their own players and our goalie never got a look in. Speaking to a mate recently he told the same story about his grandson who is a really talented footballer but who used to get dropped for the coaches son who wasn't half as good as mates grandson. The wee lad has now taken up boxing as he was sickened by the whole experience.
 
There are multiple factors why Scotland could do better at football which have been covered by other commenters, poor coaching and lack of decent facilities etc.

Scotland alcoholic ned culture is another factor. Growing up lots of the guys I knew who were the best at football became neds who abused drugs and alcohol and didn't live up to their potential.

As young teenagers some the guys who were the best at football often became the 'coolest' guys who got a lot of female attention, at weekends they would start going binge drinking, taking drugs and smoking and their game started to suffer as a result.

If Scotland didn't have this alcoholic ned culture I think we would be much better at football, the promising young guys would reach their full potential instead of it being hampered by substance abuse.
 
Yet again people seem unable to look at things on anything beyond a single layer.


Of course population plays a part and if 2 nations with identical culture, economy and genetics were compared, the larger will have more top players than the smaller.
It is not anywhere near the only factor, or even the most important, but it obviously does play a significant role.
 
How can Scotland compete with a population the size of England?

England are cricket world champions.
India aren't.

Australia with a population of around 25 million has more titles than England, Pakistan and India combined.

A simple look at recent international football tournaments with the relative success of Croatia, Iceland, Wales and Northern Ireland utterly destroys the population myth.
You cannot totally discount population as a factor, but clearly, it isn't the defining one.
After all, each team is only allowed to field eleven players.

I am sure I read something about Norway having proportionally the most active sport's participants in the world or something like that, which allows them with a population of five million or so to punch way above their weight in any number of sporting competitions.

Poverty is also not that relevant, as most of the top football nations come from the richest countries on the planet.

I suppose there must be a number of factors in producing good sportspeople and being competitive at football, sadly I believe the ones that Scotland previously had to bear on this equation have fallen by the wayside.
 
Of course it's an issue, but far more important is the massive drop off in kids being remotely interested in playing sport even at a recreational level. I feel like weeping sometimes if I'm walking my daughter's dog in the local park and see the astro turfed football/basketball area completely unused, in fact one day I passed and there was one young lad of African origin knocking a ball about himself. The baffling thing is there has never been a better era to ''make it'' at football, with wages at an historic high.
 
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