Kilmarnock are absolutely dire this season but hopefully their win v Hibs has given them some confidence.There is no way they can continue their shots to goal average, they are due to come down with a bump soon. Hopefully Killie this weekend.
I don’t want to give the stats away, but their actual goal difference is *double* their expected goal difference.Not seen the stats but I agree their form isn't sustainable.
Anyone else subscribed to the Modern Fitba advanced statistics Patreon?
Looking through the data this morning and it makes for very interesting reading, particularly with regards to the xG table. It indicates Celtic are due for a major regression soon.
Our xG so far this season is pretty consistent with our goals scored. We’re top of the xG table for the whole leagueThere was some info posted on here last week from the SPFL stats section which indicated they are getting 2 goals from every 3 shots on target. That is remarkable and totally unsustainable in the longer term. The best teams in the World do not achieve that.
Anything better than 1 goal per 3 shots on target is generally regarded as ‘decent’. Last season we ended up with something like a goal every 2.7 shots on target or thereabouts. This season we are a good bit behind that so far in the league.
They have been poor but seems to have stopped the rot a bit. 4 clean sheets on the bounce I think now - soon to be 5Kilmarnock are absolutely dire this season but hopefully their win v Hibs has given them some confidence.
Our xG so far this season is pretty consistent with our goals scored. We’re top of the xG table for the whole league
I've been posting about this in the threads on here about our goalscoring. Haven't seen the most recent stats but a couple of weeks ago our XG was pretty much the same as our goals scored. Interestingly Celtic's XG was slightly lower than ours despite scoring much more. I've said that things will even out as time goes on but folk love to panic on here. They've gone through a bit of a purple patch where they were banging in goals from outside the box against St Johnstone etc but that won't last.Anyone else subscribed to the Modern Fitba advanced statistics Patreon?
Looking through the data this morning and it makes for very interesting reading, particularly with regards to the xG table. It indicates Celtic are due for a major regression soon.
Compare our conversion rate to our XG, it's far too simplistic and also pretty meaningless to compare our conversion rate to another teams. Or I should say, it can lead to us making the wrong assumptions and reaching wrong conclusions.No idea about that mate as I’m only going by SPFL stats:
Rangers 95 shots at goal, 48 on target and only 12 goals.
Dhims are 73 shots at goal, 27 on target and 18 goals.
We need to improve our conversion rate. Your original point stands though - they cannot sustain that level.
Does that include Europe or just domestic?Our xG so far this season is pretty consistent with our goals scored. We’re top of the xG table for the whole league
Just domestic mateDoes that include Europe or just domestic?
That’s pretty much how it sits right now.I've been posting about this in the threads on here about our goalscoring. Haven't seen the most recent stats but a couple of weeks ago our XG was pretty much the same as our goals scored. Interestingly Celtic's XG was slightly lower than ours despite scoring much more. I've said that things will even out as time goes on but folk love to panic on here. They've gone through a bit of a purple patch where they were banging in goals from outside the box against St Johnstone etc but that won't last.
Surprised at that a bit, the Hibs game was an onslaught and even though we scored 6, I think we had some thing ridiculous like 30+ efforts. Maybe balanced out by us not creating much at Rugby Park or against them.Just domestic mate
Compare our conversion rate to our XG, it's far too simplistic and also pretty meaningless to compare our conversion rate to another teams. Or I should say, it can lead to us making the wrong assumptions and reaching wrong conclusions.
Aye but the issue is shots on target is a very blunt stat, especially compared to XG. XG is based on the type of shot, where it comes from, whether it was a header or not and gives a more realistic idea of just how many goals we 'should've' scored. You can look at the number of shots we've taken and say we haven't been clinical enough in front of goal but you could also say that it's not a question of being clinical but we've been making bad decisions in terms of where the shots are coming from or poor quality chances.I don't have access to xG figures so I can't compare.
What I do see, from the SPFL stats, is that we have more attempts on goal than anyone else, we have more shots on target than anyone else - yet only 1 in 4 of those shots on target results in a goal. Over the course of last season in the league I think we managed an average of a goal for every 2.7 shots on target. So, even just comparing us with our own returns from last season we have much room for improvement.
Of course, at this stage, the sample size is tiny enough to render it all a bit meaningless anyway.
In terms of analysis xG is a stat that is really good for providing an unbiased look at how many goals a team should score. In smaller samples teams could be a good bit above or below it but over the peice they should be scoring around what the xG stat shows.I find statistically analysis moderately interesting.
However to my naked, untrained eye we miss too many chances and are not clinical enough.
I'd say that's fairly obvious.
Surely that contradicts the xG analysis?
The way Defoe likes to play, on the shoulder of the centrehalfs mean that a good number of his chances will come in the area where you're more likely to have an xG, i.e. cental area of the box with the feet rather than the head. Arfield has a great understanding with him in that area of the park.I was looking through some of their individual player graphics yesterday and was surprised to see Defoe leading the league in combined xG and xA per 90 minutes with Morelos in 3rd.
Tavernier 3rd in the league for solely xA behind Niall McGinn and Chris Burke of all people.