Moneyball

If you want an idea on how we are doing well in sourcing good players, watch the movie Moneyball starring Brad Pitt. This is the system that John Fenway brought to Liverpool and Gerrard will also be aware of. Also remember watching a behind the scenes program on Southampton when Ross Wilson was there. They had stats on hundreds of players at other clubs and if for eg they needed a right back, they had all the homework done and the best option always tended to be an unknown name who had the best stats and could be bought very cheaply.Good watch
 

bluewonder

Well-Known Member
Warburton had success with this system at Brentford, it worked well for him there as he had time to implement it.
 

Wazza

Well-Known Member
Bloom (Brighton) and Bentham (Brentford) both have punting firms who use similar systems to it all. Quite a few knocking about. Number of analysts now related to Football stats is staggering really, can’t all be marvellous.
 

strathavenbear

Well-Known Member
The majority of the signings we've made since Gerrard came in have made sense in the risk was always going to outweighed by the reward. The outlier being Grezda, no idea why that was approved.
 

GranvillusClutterbuckus

Well-Known Member
Bloom (Brighton) and Bentham (Brentford) both have punting firms who use similar systems to it all. Quite a few knocking about. Number of analysts now related to Football stats is staggering really, can’t all be marvellous.
Bentham did more than that. He bought FC Midtjylland and used that approach and won the Danish league on a tiny budget via that model. They didn't just use player stats in their analysis, but also tactics and established KPIs from them which they then used to find the right player for them.

He did have a team of 300 people working for him giving the stat analysis mind.
 

Raumdeuter

Well-Known Member
The majority of the signings we've made since Gerrard came in have made sense in the risk was always going to outweighed by the reward. The outlier being Grezda, no idea why that was approved.
Grezda and Barisic both performed very well in that Osijek team in all fairness.

Might be an unpopular opinion but we didn't really try too hard to make things work out, we probably should have given him a bit more of a chance to show something.
 

HuggyBear

Active Member
If you want an idea on how we are doing well in sourcing good players, watch the movie Moneyball starring Brad Pitt. This is the system that John Fenway brought to Liverpool and Gerrard will also be aware of. Also remember watching a behind the scenes program on Southampton when Ross Wilson was there. They had stats on hundreds of players at other clubs and if for eg they needed a right back, they had all the homework done and the best option always tended to be an unknown name who had the best stats and could be bought very cheaply.Good watch
Its a good movie mate
 

The_Degan

Well-Known Member
Grezda and Barisic both performed very well in that Osijek team in all fairness.

Might be an unpopular opinion but we didn't really try too hard to make things work out, we probably should have given him a bit more of a chance to show something.
Get what your saying but seems more likely grezdas attitude was the problem , hence why he didn’t get many chances .
 

Wazza

Well-Known Member
Bentham did more than that. He bought FC Midtjylland and used that approach and won the Danish league on a tiny budget via that model. They didn't just use player stats in their analysis, but also tactics and established KPIs from them which they then used to find the right player for them.

He did have a team of 300 people working for him giving the stat analysis mind.

I know all that mate, was just pointing out how many there are - just 10 minutes on LinkedIn and you’ll see stacks.
 

Rosco

Active Member
2 questions spring to mind:

1) what is the football equivalent for "getting on base" ?
2) was Craig Brown in fact some sort of football visionary ? I always felt he would come out with some fact-based drivel to shine a positive on a honking Scotland drubbing c. 92-98
 

Whitehorse

Active Member
Grezda and Barisic both performed very well in that Osijek team in all fairness.

Might be an unpopular opinion but we didn't really try too hard to make things work out, we probably should have given him a bit more of a chance to show something.
Dont think Grezda would have taken his chance, borna was pretty poor when he first came as well but he didn't half work at it, we've not made too .any bad signings under the SG regime
 

davieboyblue

Well-Known Member
Grezda and Barisic both performed very well in that Osijek team in all fairness.

Might be an unpopular opinion but we didn't really try too hard to make things work out, we probably should have given him a bit more of a chance to show something.

There is some truth in that. However his attitude was honking. Contrast with Borna and how he got the head down and cemented his place in the team.
 

Teuchterblue

Well-Known Member
I watched Moneyball a few years back. Loved the movie, but I was no better at understanding the system than I was before watching. I would assume the approach is only as good as the info you are inputting and the eggheads interpreting that info.
 

cooprfc

Well-Known Member
I watched Moneyball a few years back. Loved the movie, but I was no better at understanding the system than I was before watching. I would assume the approach is only as good as the info you are inputting and the eggheads interpreting that info.

I think, at a basic level, it's a case of us losing Morelos 20 goals but replacing him with a winger and a striker who will get 21 goals between them.
 

Teuchterblue

Well-Known Member
I think, at a basic level, it's a case of us losing Morelos 20 goals but replacing him with a winger and a striker who will get 21 goals between them.
Or just replace Morelos with Lawrence Shankland. Sorted.

I would imagine there are individuals and firms who are very good at this. Probably also attracts a fair share of charlatans and shysters.
 

TQ3

Well-Known Member
It was the money ball system that forced Warburton out of Brentford. The owner told him that it was the new approach, and he disagreed and left.
 

strathavenbear

Well-Known Member
Grezda and Barisic both performed very well in that Osijek team in all fairness.

Might be an unpopular opinion but we didn't really try too hard to make things work out, we probably should have given him a bit more of a chance to show something.

More the fact he had been injured for the end of the previous season and was still injured when we bought him. As well as he'd played for Osjek it hadn't been for a full season.
I think it was a punt, based on videos we'd watched of them prior to the Euro game, unfortunately it didn't work out.
 

Forza_Napoli

Well-Known Member
Warburton had success with this system at Brentford, it worked well for him there as he had time to implement it.
It didn't actually he left because that's what was getting implement and he wouldn't have a say on transfers. Basically they had sussed him and the best in the buissnes in the transfer market. But yeah it has worked well for brentford using that model
 

Trigga34

Well-Known Member
We have done well on a few low budget buys, but we have also spent money this time on quality no carlos pena
 

BobbyShearer

Well-Known Member
You mean couldn’t pay his best mate And daughter agency easy money allegedly.

That was what was said on here anyway.

I didn’t actually put that particular 2 and 2 together.
Interesting point considering how it went at the end with our transfers.
 

ChildOfGod

Well-Known Member

Sutton_Blows_goats

Well-Known Member
John Hendry not John Fenway. Lol.

Also yes it’s good but if everyone does it you don’t get an advantage. Especially when clubs with greater resources do it better.

They key is to do it differently in a way that works for you.
 

Papac

Well-Known Member
2 questions spring to mind:

1) what is the football equivalent for "getting on base" ?

2) was Craig Brown in fact some sort of football visionary ? I always felt he would come out with some fact-based drivel to shine a positive on a honking Scotland drubbing c. 92-98
I've always found the bookmaker odds to score a goal useful for Fantasy Football. If Van Dijk is at home to Fulham, their defence being poorer than say Man City means it is more likely for him to score from a header at a corner and you'll see his any time odds change from 12/1 to 5/1 to reflect that. The poorer the team, the more likely they are to keep a clean sheet as well.
 

bluenosebazza

Well-Known Member
Or just replace Morelos with Lawrence Shankland. Sorted.

I would imagine there are individuals and firms who are very good at this. Probably also attracts a fair share of charlatans and shysters.
You cant look at a strikers goals and replace them directly, thats exactly what they tell you not to do in Moneyball. They dont replace a players home runs or runs batted in directly in Moneyball because for a star player its very difficult to do, especially on a budget. You recreate them in the average.

In Moneyball its the on base percentage they use to decide on the players. Not runs scored. Not home runs. Not hits. Just how often the person is on base because that then gives you a chance of scoring a run.
 
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