Murty’s Substitutions

chrisgers

Well-Known Member
The most persistent criticism on here about Graham Murray is that he leaves substitutions too late.

To be fair it’s always a criticism any manager has to live with because he can never disprove the premise that if so and so had come on 20 minutes earlier for so and so we’d have won at a canter.

However, where many managers make subs religiously on the hour mark, Murty’s norm is to wait til 70 or 75 mins. So, is he really a complete imbecile as the experts on here would have it or is there a reason for this? I don’t think this is coincidence and I don’t think Murty is the sort of guy to go against common football “wisdom” just for the sake of it. He comes across as much smarter than that.

I wondered if he’s done some analysis that suggests later subs have more of an impact. The only thing I can think of is it maximises the impact of fresh legs because the opposition is slightly more tired and because the player coming on can expend energy at an even higher sustained rate. Leaving it later probably has an even more defined advantage but not having it long enough weakens the overall chance of a goal.

Or are we going with the “He’s just a youth coach who doesn’t know what he’s doing” argument?

Any thoughts?
 
He certainly gets alot of stick for the later timing of his subs. I do think there has been times he should of changed it earlier especially against Hibs. You could quite clearly see we where getting overrun in the midfield.

But yesterday i think he was spot on. Can see why people wanted Windass hooked but he was getting himself into good positions and on another day he could of scored 3 or 4. Docherty was struggling with cramp before he got subbed seen him stretching on the half way line he had run himself into the ground.

Murty will be judged on the timing of his subs when we are getting beat or struggling to break teams down in the later halves of a game. But just now games have generally been going our way and the timing of the subs really aint an issue.
 
Cummings for Morelos definitely weakened us as he simply couldn't hold the ball up against Berra and Soutar the way Morelos did.

Having said that, I know he's trying to give him game time so I do get it.

It does show you though how vital Morelos is to the way we play.
 
Yesterday a goal always looked like it was coming and we were playing well so there wasn't such a need to just change it for changes sake. I think he felt it might have upset our rhythm.

Docherty was knackered so fair enough to sub him off and at that time in the game wee Holt is a great option to come on with his energy on the middle of the park.

I would have taken off windass and went with 2 up top but I don't get paid thousands to make these decisions!
 
Cummings for Morelos definitely weakened us as he simply couldn't hold the ball up against Berra and Soutar the way Morelos did.

Having said that, I know he's trying to give him game time so I do get it.

It does show you though how vital Morelos is to the way we play.
Spot on! If Morelos was sold this month we would struggle to tie down second place never mind chase them down.
 
Bret Myers did some research on the timings of substitutions and their impact on the game. If a manager is not losing then the timing of their subs makes little difference to the score.

I think Murty just likes keeping a team that’s winning on the park as long as he can.

Thanks for that.
 
Couldn’t understand the Docherty change at the time but I will accept others judgement that he was done. The lad was brilliant yesterday.

Windass, for me, should have been hooked. Other than spurned chances he offered nothing. We won despite him yesterday. Either holt or Cummings could have replaced him.

Totally agree on Morelos hold up play also. We are a noticeably stronger team with Alfie. He also does much more pressing of the opposition.
 
Spot on! If Morelos was sold this month we would struggle to tie down second place never mind chase them down.
What an absolute nonsense, Morelos went nine games without scoring and missed several chances again yesterday and we’re still in the hunt! While I think he’s a fantastic player Cummings coming in for him wouldn’t weaken us that much, he’s a fantastic goal scorer too!
 
I get the Doc one simply because he had earned that ovation going off the park but you'll never convince that Morelos going off instead of Windass yesterday was the right call.


Agree with you mate it just wasn’t Windass day in front of goal yesterday and a swap with him and Cummings would of been better than taking Morelos off
 
What an absolute nonsense, Morelos went nine games without scoring and missed several chances again yesterday and we’re still in the hunt! While I think he’s a fantastic player Cummings coming in for him wouldn’t weaken us that much, he’s a fantastic goal scorer too!


It's not nonsense.

It's Morelos's hold up play that allows the likes of Windass and Murphy to get into great goal scoring positions .

Cummings is a good player, but never in a million years will he be the replacement for Morelos if and when he goes.

He simply isn't effective enough as a lone striker if we want to progress .
 
All the statistical data - apparently - indicates 60 minutes is the optimum time to make substitutions. Hence, if you watch the EPL for example, it’s the most common time for subs. Warburton did it every week - we slated him for it. Murty does it later - we slate him for it.:rolleyes:

Go figure.

As for yesterday’s subs. Windass was poor but Morelos was hardly having a stormer either. Docherty was tiring. Just let the Manager get on with it I say.
 
It's not nonsense.

It's Morelos's hold up play that allows the likes of Windass and Murphy to get into great goal scoring positions .

Cummings is a good player, but never in a million years will he be the replacement for Morelos if and when he goes.

He simply isn't effective enough as a lone striker if we want to progress .
It’s complete nonsense to say that we would capitulate and struggle to compete for second place if Morelos left!!

Complete and utter NONSENSE!!
 
What an absolute nonsense, Morelos went nine games without scoring and missed several chances again yesterday and we’re still in the hunt! While I think he’s a fantastic player Cummings coming in for him wouldn’t weaken us that much, he’s a fantastic goal scorer too!

I think you’re missing the point in terms of Alfie’s overall contribution to the style of play and team strategy. Even if he doesn’t score, he’s still extremely effective at bringing the other forward thinking players into the game. Reality is, Cummings does can’t do this as well as Alfie can and subsequently, the overall team performance can suffer.
 
It’s complete nonsense to say that we would capitulate and struggle to compete for second place if Morelos left!!

Complete and utter NONSENSE!!


I never mentioned competing for 2nd place, I said if we want to progress then Cummings will not be our striker.

Would be very suprised if we will actually try to sign him.
 
I always get the feeling with Murty that he's waiting for something to happen before he makes his decision on subs. Come 70min yesterday nobody was out for a warm up either..I think he likes to stick with it and if it's not broke..

That would obviously cost us dearly in 1-0 games if the other team score but yesterday i felt confident we would see it out. But with Windass squandering a good few chances and doing very little else he should have been hooked.
 
It’s complete nonsense to say that we would capitulate and struggle to compete for second place if Morelos left!!

Complete and utter NONSENSE!!

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Lovenkrands & Big Tom said if it aint broke don't fix it when commenting on Murty not having made any subs. I personally thought Windass should have gone before Morelos because the ball was sticking to Alfies foot like glue, despite him not scoring.
 
Cummings for Windass at around the 65th min.

And only after JC had warmed up for five minutes.
Really believe the subs should be keeping themselves ready to go on and make a difference for most of the second half. It's asking for trouble if you put a sub on who hasn't stretched and warmed up beforehand, Murty puzzles me.
 
I think you’re missing the point in terms of Alfie’s overall contribution to the style of play and team strategy. Even if he doesn’t score, he’s still extremely effective at bringing the other forward thinking players into the game. Reality is, Cummings does can’t do this as well as Alfie can and subsequently, the overall team performance can suffer.
I think you’re “missing the point” and that’s not what I said. I said he’s a fantastic player what I disagreed with was the statement that if he left we’d struggle to compete for second place....which is a complete nonsense. I know how good a player Morelos is don’t worry about that!
 
He gets far too much stick for his substitutes and I'm glad he spoke about it after the match yesterday.

I understand if we're getting beat and are struggling to save the game, but a ton of folk are screaming for subs even when we are totally dominating.

In the match thread people were saying stuff like 'if we don't win this now it's only Murty to blame' and 'if Murty had made a sub we'd be 3 or 4 up by now' (while at 1-0) but it's hardly as simplistic as that.

And I'm not having a go at people who said it, I understand nerves are high and you start panicking, but Murty has confidence in himself and his players and once again called the game perfectly. He should have earned some trust by now.
 
I never mentioned competing for 2nd place, I said if we want to progress then Cummings will not be our striker.

Would be very suprised if we will actually try to sign him.
The post I replied to that you quoted did.

I think you’re way off the mark with Cummings though, I think if he gets a run he’d score a barrow load considering the amount of chances Windass and Morelos scorn.
 
All the statistical data - apparently - indicates 60 minutes is the optimum time to make substitutions. Hence, if you watch the EPL for example, it’s the most common time for subs. Warburton did it every week - we slated him for it. Murty does it later - we slate him for it.:rolleyes:

Go figure.

As for yesterday’s subs. Windass was poor but Morelos was hardly having a stormer either. Docherty was tiring. Just let the Manager get on with it I say.
Tin hat on but I thought the majority of the time Warburton making subs at 60 mins. was a good idea and seemed,for the most part at least-to have a positive impact.
That said,there were still times when he just did it for the sake of it and we were all going tonto at him for it.

I do think Murty shows a lack of awareness making the correct subs at the right times though.
Hopefully he improves on that aspect as the teams playing well enough at the minute.
 
Cummings for Morelos definitely weakened us as he simply couldn't hold the ball up against Berra and Soutar the way Morelos did.

Having said that, I know he's trying to give him game time so I do get it.

It does show you though how vital Morelos is to the way we play.
Same happened vs Aberdeen on Cummings debut , and this coincided with Aberdeen's strong finish to the game.
 
The post I replied to that you quoted did.

I think you’re way off the mark with Cummings though, I think if he gets a run he’d score a barrow load considering the amount of chances Windass and Morelos scorn.


We'll agree to disagree mate, but if Morelos leaves for silly money in the summer I'll wager Murty and Allen will have someone of a far higher calibre than Jason Cummings lined up as a replacement.
 
I get the Doc one simply because he had earned that ovation going off the park but you'll never convince that Morelos going off instead of Windass yesterday was the right call.
To be fair I thing he had a wee groin niggle
 
Cummings for Windass at around the 65th min.
^Was the correct move imo,it looked evident to me it was one of those games where Windass wasn't contributing effectively,unfortunately in another home match against better opposition.

Docherty I understand completely though,he'd put in a power of work and Holt gives great energy off the bench.
 
Cummings for Morelos definitely weakened us as he simply couldn't hold the ball up against Berra and Soutar the way Morelos did.

Having said that, I know he's trying to give him game time so I do get it.

It does show you though how vital Morelos is to the way we play.
We did weaken when AM went off as JC can’t hold the ball up and waits for the second ball hoping the defenders feck up.

I was happy for us the not use subs yesterday as we were doing fine, there is no rules saying you have to use them.
 
The Manager picks his 11 to start and win the game and in an ideal world he makes no changes to his side. Subs are subs for a reason.

He should only change for tactical reasons, injury, tiredness or poor performance. Making changes for the sake of it or "to give someone a run out" shouldnt happen unless the game is well and truly won and he can look ahead to the next game.

So essentially it then comes down to the managers interpretation - will a replacement be better than whats on the park? I suspect he wanted to keep the shape and felt Windass offers more than Miller which is why he stayed on instead of being hooked for him.

Holt for Docherty made sense as the lad had run his race.

However, Cummings for Morelos is open to debate - we just have to trust Murty knows better than we do
 
We did weaken when AM went off as JC can’t hold the ball up and waits for the second ball hoping the defenders feck up.

I was happy for us the not use subs yesterday as we were doing fine, there is no rules saying you have to use them.

Thanks for clearing that up, wasn't sure about the ruling.
The subs should've been out keeping themselves ready to go on and make a contribution without straining something.
Windass was mostly anonymous yesterday and couldn't pull off his usual trick of scoring to make most of us forget how little he offers otherwise. Murty was on at him yesterday to keep going, he should've been hooked instead.
 
We'll agree to disagree mate, but if Morelos leaves for silly money in the summer I'll wager Murty and Allen will have someone of a far higher calibre than Jason Cummings lined up as a replacement.
Yeah absolutely it’s all about opinions mate, I think you’re being a bit quick to judge Cummings though? Time will tell, hopefully get something today and crank the pressure right up! NS!
 
Yeah absolutely it’s all about opinions mate, I think you’re being a bit quick to judge Cummings though? Time will tell, hopefully get something today and crank the pressure right up! NS!


Mate I like Cummings and we're fortunate to have someone of his quality to call upon should we be missing Windass or Morelos at all.

I just think we will sign a higher calibre of player as we head towards where we want and deserve to be.

I don't see Cummings becoming are permanent signing, but time will tell.
 
Can't remember the last manager we had who wasn't criticised for his substitutions
 
Mate I like Cummings and we're fortunate to have someone of his quality to call upon should we be missing Windass or Morelos at all.

I just think we will sign a higher calibre of player as we head towards where we want and deserve to be.

I don't see Cummings becoming are permanent signing, but time will tell.

Really hope you're wrong on this. Getting another player with Morelos's attributes in our end of the market won't be easy so in that case we may need to rely on a finisher like Cummings and a set-up player. Therefore, when Alfie goes I reckon we should identify and secure the set-up guy rather than the sicario. That type of player should also be less expensive.
 
I never mentioned competing for 2nd place, I said if we want to progress then Cummings will not be our striker.

Would be very suprised if we will actually try to sign him.

I've said since he signed on loan that I suspect Cummings will turn out to be a massive disappointment. To be fair, he's done better - so far - than I expected; I thought he did really well at Partick Thistle for example, so credit to him for that. He is, however, just as likely to make little impact; I thought he was poor when he came on yesterday.

Don't want this to sound like having a go at an individual player; he will be an asset to have between now and the end of the season but, I agree, I don't think we will make it permanent because I think we will look for better if/when Morelos moves on. He seems to have most of the fans onside - moreso than Windass? - so that will help him.

I can imagine the fury on here if he'd brought on Miller for Morelos instead of Cummings. Despite the fact that Miller is more capable of 'holding the ball up' in the same manner as Morelos than Cummings.

EDIT: I've actually just sat and watched 15 minutes or so of the highlights from yesterday on Rangerstv. For sure, Windass had a nightmare in front of goal but I was surprised to see how much involvement he had in most of the good things we did yesterday. Some good work off the ball but, more importantly, he was actually heavily involved in a lot of good passing movements. Worth a viewing for those who subscribe. He was certainly far from 'anonymous' as some have claimed.
 
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Really hope you're wrong on this. Getting another player with Morelos's attributes in our end of the market won't be easy so in that case we may need to rely on a finisher like Cummings and a set-up player. Therefore, when Alfie goes I reckon we should identify and secure the set-up guy rather than the sicario. That type of player should also be less expensive.


The thing is though mate, to get the best out of Tav , John Candeias, Windass and Murphy’s superb attacking qualities you MUST have a striker with the strength to hold up the ball, plus the awareness to play in runners and interlink our attacks.

As you rightly point out, they don't come cheap, but I guarantee Allen will be scouring our end of the market and identifying the type of striker we need.

He's done ok so far so fingers crossed.
 
I think most managers are very stubborn and by making changes it suggests that they have set up wrong.

Sometimes it clear early on when it’s just not going to work for a certain player and management need to make tough decisions and sometimes that might be bringing someone off after 30 mins.

I remember back to the Unirea game we were all over their right/left back and he was having a shocker and Dan Petrusco hauled him off and the whole games momentum changed
 
I would worry more about a coach who planned for a game all week and then felt the need to make changes quickly during a game.......
Really? You wouldn't include likely scenarios in your plan?
What would you do if there's an injury, a sending-off or an opposition sub comes on and changes the game?
You'd rather have a coach who refused to respond to timeously game-changing events?

And anyway, if you know anything about planning or history you know that plans usually go out the window when you make contact with the enemy. Plans aren't about unbreakable rules, they're about thinking things through, trying to ensure you don't get surprised.
 
There was no need to change the shape yesterday. We dominated the second half from start to finish. Sometimes you need to trust the players on the pitch to manage the game as Murty said in his interview. He got it spot on.

Yes Windass had an off day but he is a confidence player and subbing him for missing chances might have caused more harm than good in the long run.
 
The most persistent criticism on here about Graham Murray is that he leaves substitutions too late.

To be fair it’s always a criticism any manager has to live with because he can never disprove the premise that if so and so had come on 20 minutes earlier for so and so we’d have won at a canter.

However, where many managers make subs religiously on the hour mark, Murty’s norm is to wait til 70 or 75 mins. So, is he really a complete imbecile as the experts on here would have it or is there a reason for this? I don’t think this is coincidence and I don’t think Murty is the sort of guy to go against common football “wisdom” just for the sake of it. He comes across as much smarter than that.

I wondered if he’s done some analysis that suggests later subs have more of an impact. The only thing I can think of is it maximises the impact of fresh legs because the opposition is slightly more tired and because the player coming on can expend energy at an even higher sustained rate. Leaving it later probably has an even more defined advantage but not having it long enough weakens the overall chance of a goal.

Or are we going with the “He’s just a youth coach who doesn’t know what he’s doing” argument?

Any thoughts?

Graham Murray? :D
 
Bret Myers did some research on the timings of substitutions and their impact on the game. If a manager is not losing then the timing of their subs makes little difference to the score.

I think Murty just likes keeping a team that’s winning on the park as long as he can.
Correct and that is something we need to understand.
There is no rule that says you’ve got to make substitutions.
 
There was no need to change the shape yesterday. We dominated the second half from start to finish. Sometimes you need to trust the players on the pitch to manage the game as Murty said in his interview. He got it spot on.

Yes Windass had an off day but he is a confidence player and subbing him for missing chances might have caused more harm than good in the long run.
Got to like this.
Pretty much what I posted earlier.
 
Murty’s inability to substitute Windass when he has off days like yesterday does himself, nor Windass, any favours.

His substitutions in general do seem a bit strange. They always seem badly timed or it feels like he takes the wrong player off. Hopefully it’s something he can learn as we move forward.
 
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