Revised Odds for the Title

I think the odds are based on the bookies thinking Morelos might leave in January,

I don’t agree the odds are based on him being 4 behind and having to share game time with leagues top scorer , Eduoard on other hand will get most game time of the 3 probably only reason he is second favourite .
 
I don’t agree the odds are based on him being 4 behind and having to share game time with leagues top scorer , Eduoard on other hand will get most game time of the 3 probably only reason he is second favourite .

No chance Eduoard could leave himself?
 
As per Betfair this morning:

Celtic 4/6 - 60% implied chance of winning the title
Rangers 5/4 - 44% implied chance of winning the title
Aberdeen 100/1 - bet a tenner on them, and you'll lose a tenner.

That's the closest the markets have been in a long time.
Gers are evens on Skybet.
 
No chance Eduoard could leave himself?
If both Eduoard and Morelos left I think it would hurt them more. Whilst I think Alfie is a better player I think
We’d hold out for more for Alfie than they would for the huffy french prick
We’d spend it better
A reasonably fresh Defoe would outscore the rest of the league never mind their back up strikers or January replacements
 
I put £1333 on rangers for the title at 9/4, earlier in the season.

Then yesterday when the odds got shorter I accepted a £1333 bet on Betfair (I layed rangers).

If we win the title I get £1000 profit, if we don't win the title I break even.
 
I put £1333 on rangers for the title at 9/4, earlier in the season.

Then yesterday when the odds got shorter I accepted a £1333 bet on Betfair (I layed rangers).

If we win the title I get £1000 profit, if we don't win the title I break even.


Gonna level it up if the chance arises at 1.10?!
 
Means so whatever the outcome is you win the same amount. If you can lay Gers at 1.10 for £1000 quid then you get £900 profit irrelevant of who wins it.

I'm interested but can't follow your maths. Had to sit down for near ten minutes to figure out the maths and double checking for my own bets that I posted.

Surely if I lay rangers for £1000 I just lose an extra £1000 if we win (and am therefore breaking even), but if they don't win the league then I keep the layed bet stake (of £900?) So I'd be £900 up.
 
I'm interested but can't follow your maths. Had to sit down for near ten minutes to figure out the maths and double checking for my own bets that I posted.

Surely if I lay rangers for £1000 I just lose an extra £1000 if we win (and am therefore breaking even), but if they don't win the league then I keep the layed bet stake (of £900?) So I'd be £900 up.

My cock up, figures wrong - I am talking about the future like and not now, meaning if it gets to the point where there is a 10 point gap say would you lay off more.

Basically you lay a £1000 bet on Rangers at 1.10
- if it wins it costs you £100 so you are £900 ahead overall
- if it loses you get the £1000 so you are £1000 ahead overall

I ain't used betfair in ages to tell truth, used to find it easy using the WHAT IF option. Think you must have put the first bet on at a bookies though and not on betfair so it makes it a bit harder to equate all in all.

You were meant to say "March when we are 10 clear mate" to my original comment!
 
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Bookies obviously consider it may be a tighter race, which is a good.
Still a long way to go and a lot of twists and turns.
 
I find it amusing the Bookies have Edouard as 2nd fav ahead of Alfredo :D. Sam Cosgrove will end up scoring more than the French cabbage
 
Newcastle 9/4 Relegated
QPR 3/1 Relegated
Rangers 2/1 Title win
Juventus 4/9 Title win
Bolton 4/6 Relegated
Falkirk 4/7 Title win
Cove Rangers 7/4 Title win
Athletico Madrid 4/6 Win the league if you exclude Barca & Madrid

My bet before the leagues started with bet 365. £10 on for £6700 or thereabouts back. Show me the money!

 
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If we do win this title the Blackpool EoS party weekend will be gi-normous and I'll fuukin definitely be signing up for it.
 
I got us at 12/5 at the start of the season
with Liverpool at 5/2

I am kicking myself now for not getting that double on. Spoke about it to my mate over the summer was getting it at 9/1 and never got round to having a bet on it.

Will celebrate just as mental tho when (if) it comes in.

Best of luck pal.
 
£100 bet on Rangers +8.5 points to win the league with the local Celtic fan.

He isn’t best pleased and it’s glorious!
 
I got us at 12/5.

£10 accumulator returns £1508.20.

Rangers (12/5)
Dundee Utd (5/2)
Juventus (8/15)
Leeds to be promoted (15/8)
Brighton to be relegated (15/8)



Brighton one I'm not too sure about currently..
 
Fivethirtyeight has us at a 58% of winning the league this season for the first time so far.
 
My cock up, figures wrong - I am talking about the future like and not now, meaning if it gets to the point where there is a 10 point gap say would you lay off more.

Basically you lay a £1000 bet on Rangers at 1.10
- if it wins it costs you £100 so you are £900 ahead overall
- if it loses you get the £1000 so you are £1000 ahead overall

I ain't used betfair in ages to tell truth, used to find it easy using the WHAT IF option. Think you must have put the first bet on at a bookies though and not on betfair so it makes it a bit harder to equate all in all.

You were meant to say "March when we are 10 clear mate" to my original comment!

I see what you mean now, the short answer is no, because when I layed the bet I deliberately chose the numbers that mean I'm quids in for a rangers title win and breaking even if it doesn't happen.

That way I get the fun/drama of a bet but none of the risk.

But I admit it will be tempting when the odds shorten that much come march!
 
It's interesting that both 538 and Modern Fitba are projecting us to win the league this year.

It shows just how much better our underlying numbers are than Celtic's.
Not sure Modern Fitba are totally. Rangers Report's model on twitter has us predicted to winning it atm but SethMetrics still has them winning it, although the gap is closing, because of that higher % of chances taken. However the % of chances that they are scoring is unsustainable and we are creating a lot more shots on targets a game than they are. Keep getting more shots on target a game and we will be in with a great shout.

EDIT: Also 538 can get things wrong. They said Clinton had a 71% of winning the election in 2016 BUT that was actually a lower % chance for her than you'd have got in the bookies or in other models at the time.
 
Not sure Modern Fitba are totally. Rangers Report's model on twitter has us predicted to winning it atm but SethMetrics still has them winning it, although the gap is closing, because of that higher % of chances taken. However the % of chances that they are scoring is unsustainable and we are creating a lot more shots on targets a game than they are. Keep getting more shots on target a game and we will be in with a great shout.

EDIT: Also 538 can get things wrong. They said Clinton had a 71% of winning the election in 2016 BUT that was actually a lower % chance for her than you'd have got in the bookies or in other models at the time.
Well ultimately these are all models based on probability, so the underdog has to win sometimes. That doesn't mean the model is wrong.

And MF has us ahead in the xG table by a significant distance over them.
 
And MF has us ahead in the xG table by a significant distance over them.
Yes and they are outperforming their xG by significantly more than we are so you'd expect regression at some point, which Livi result could be an example, also their attacking midfielders do not seem to have particularly good results so far.
 
Folk are only having a discussion and in my case tongue in cheek.

Lighten up ffs!

Ps. You forgot 1690 at the end of your U/N.


So you make a tongue in cheek comment when you don't really mean it's in the bag.

Whit the tea leaves ?.

You really don't make a lot of sense.

We either can win it or we cannae, or will or wullnie.

Tongue in cheek or no tongue in cheek. You decide.


PS, you're season ain't finished.
 
So you make a tongue in cheek comment when you don't really mean it's in the bag.

Whit the tea leaves ?.

You really don't make a lot of sense.

We either can win it or we cannae, or will or wullnie.

Tongue in cheek or no tongue in cheek. You decide.


PS, you're season ain't finished.

Of course I think we can win it, but for me to say it’s in the bag after 8 games is quite clearly not to be taken seriously.

I forgot to add a wee smiley face for the hard of thinking.
 
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2008-2009 technically but that was in late December.

EDIT: If it has to be the first OF game total and also at home then 94-95 would be the last time but they didn't even finish 2nd that season.

Also last 4 title wins we got at least 4 points from the OF games in all of them at an average of 6 points a season.
 

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