Stats Stuff - Rangers Goals Involvements

B

Big Buff

Well-Known Member
Credit to @CunningColin on Twitter for this.

Percentage of combined xG and xA involvements for the top player in each Premiership side, relative to the overall xG output.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1197198550318366720

As you can see, we're last with Alfredo Morelos being directly involved in 21.1% of our xG. Celtic's Odsonne Edouard is third, with 32.46% of Celtic's xG.

What does this mean?

It means that we are spreading out our attacking contributions throughout the team. Celtic's attacks are a lot more focused through one individual.

I would argue that this is a very good indicator for us, as it would indicate our attack is a lot more sustainable than theirs as we are less reliant on an individual player.

The caveat is that Morelos has played less than Edouard this season, which does skew the numbers, though it may further underline that Edouard is more important to Celtic than Morelos is to us.

Would be interested to get the takes of others on this.
 
Can read into stats any way you want
For me it says more about difference in style than reliance on the players

No team depends on one player as much as the Sheep do with Cosgrove from what I’ve seen
 
Would be good if those who dont like stats dont interrupt the thread and let people that do like them discuss the topic :))
 
Big Buff said:
Credit to @CunningColin on Twitter for this.

Percentage of combined xG and xA involvements for the top player in each Premiership side, relative to the overall xG output.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1197198550318366720

As you can see, we're last with Alfredo Morelos being directly involved in 21.1% of our xG. Celtic's Odsonne Edouard is third, with 32.46% of Celtic's xG.

What does this mean?

It means that we are spreading out our attacking contributions throughout the team. Celtic's attacks are a lot more focused through one individual.

I would argue that this is a very good indicator for us, as it would indicate our attack is a lot more sustainable than theirs as we are less reliant on an individual player.

The caveat is that Morelos has played less than Edouard this season, which does skew the numbers, though it may further underline that Edouard is more important to Celtic than Morelos is to us.

Would be interested to get the takes of others on this.
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Your probably right. He should have included xg and xa per 90 minutes and that would show what you are trying to say.
 
If Hibs are overly reliant on Christian Doidge then no wonder they have been on relegation form, he has been dire.
 
I would have expected Hearts to be further up that table. Should change now that Naismith is back though.
 
What's xG+xA?
I get the final column must be percentage of goals that player was involved in.

Can't be simple number goals plus number assists or they would be whole numbers. Everyone so far seems to just know without asking, but this old guy needs these modern stats explained.
 
Big Buff said:
He’s going to start firing again. You saw it in his last game.
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Not sure, since he came to Hibs he has looked a fish out of water on what I have seen of him. Maybe Heckingbottom was the issue though, hence the hat trick against St Johnstone.
 
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dh1963 said:
What's xG+xA?
I get the final column must be percentage of goals that player was involved in.

Can't be simple number goals plus number assists or they would be whole numbers. Everyone so far seems to just know without asking, but this old guy needs these modern stats explained.
Click to expand...

Expected goals and expected assists.

www.google.com

What is xG and xA? Expected goals and assists explained

It's the number that's become more popular with football stattos in the last couple of years - but is it?
www.google.com www.google.com
 
two2tango said:
We should target edourd they lose him for any length of time their fucked

studs down the back of the Achilles from a high ball during the first few minutes of the cup final
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Or we just beat them by being better at football
 
dh1963 said:
How did Alan McGregor get a number higher than zero?
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He played a long ball that resulted in a shot directly from the player who received the pass.

Given that it’s 0.03, it was likely a shot or two from very far out - maybe right at the end of a half or something
 
NDC bear forever said:
The mentally challengeds goalscoring form ATM is due some regression. Not to say they won’t still roll teams over
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Not sure I agree tbh. They are outperforming their xG, but good teams normally do.

Is their outperformance sustainable? Their goal scoring rate probably ticks down a little, but it’s still within the possible range of outcomes IMO.

Now Leicester City, there’s a team that are gonna start dropping points soon.
 
NDC bear forever said:
Yes but they are over performing their XG by a bit.
Click to expand...
Is that not part down though to less expected goals such as from distance and wide areas. I don't know specific numbers but they do consistently get goals from both flanks and edge of the box - something we need to catch up on. (and have been lately to be fair - Jack against county for eg.)
 
GF7 said:
Is that not part down though to less expected goals such as from distance and wide areas. I don't know specific numbers but they do consistently get goals from both flanks and edge of the box - something we need to catch up on. (and have been lately to be fair - Jack against county for eg.)
Click to expand...
That is true.
 
Big Buff said:
Not sure I agree tbh. They are outperforming their xG, but good teams normally do.

Is their outperformance sustainable? Their goal scoring rate probably ticks down a little, but it’s still within the possible range of outcomes IMO.

Now Leicester City, there’s a team that are gonna start dropping points soon.
Click to expand...
I wasn’t meaning a big regression.
 
Big Buff said:
Credit to @CunningColin on Twitter for this.

Percentage of combined xG and xA involvements for the top player in each Premiership side, relative to the overall xG output.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1197198550318366720

As you can see, we're last with Alfredo Morelos being directly involved in 21.1% of our xG. Celtic's Odsonne Edouard is third, with 32.46% of Celtic's xG.

What does this mean?

It means that we are spreading out our attacking contributions throughout the team. Celtic's attacks are a lot more focused through one individual.

I would argue that this is a very good indicator for us, as it would indicate our attack is a lot more sustainable than theirs as we are less reliant on an individual player.

The caveat is that Morelos has played less than Edouard this season, which does skew the numbers, though it may further underline that Edouard is more important to Celtic than Morelos is to us.

Would be interested to get the takes of others on this.
Click to expand...
I really need to school myself on this. Consider myself reasonably up to date and savvy but all of this "expected" stats bamboozles me to a degree.
 
Big Buff said:
Credit to @CunningColin on Twitter for this.

Percentage of combined xG and xA involvements for the top player in each Premiership side, relative to the overall xG output.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1197198550318366720

As you can see, we're last with Alfredo Morelos being directly involved in 21.1% of our xG. Celtic's Odsonne Edouard is third, with 32.46% of Celtic's xG.

What does this mean?

It means that we are spreading out our attacking contributions throughout the team. Celtic's attacks are a lot more focused through one individual.

I would argue that this is a very good indicator for us, as it would indicate our attack is a lot more sustainable than theirs as we are less reliant on an individual player.

The caveat is that Morelos has played less than Edouard this season, which does skew the numbers, though it may further underline that Edouard is more important to Celtic than Morelos is to us.

Would be interested to get the takes of others on this.
Click to expand...
Simples then.... shut down Odson.
 
GF7 said:
Is that not part down though to less expected goals such as from distance and wide areas. I don't know specific numbers but they do consistently get goals from both flanks and edge of the box - something we need to catch up on. (and have been lately to be fair - Jack against county for eg.)
Click to expand...
The St Johnstone game at the start of the season made a difference for them as they scored 3 goals from outside the box which is rare. St Johnstone keeper is honking though and the worst in the league.
 
dh1963 said:
Thanks. So it isn't based on actual goals or actual assists.

I'm sure many will think this really useful, but it just looks like numbers for the sake of it to me now.
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Yes and no, I guess.

It allows for human error which definitive stats like goals & assists don't.

If Kent beats 5 men, lays the ball on a plate for Alfie one yard out and he skies it then using this model Kent still gets 'credit' for creating the chance (xA) as 9/10 that would be scored, there's just an error outside Kent's control that stopped it. Morelos also gets a high xG rating for getting himself into an area of the pitch where he's very likely to score.

That sounds like a bit of a reach granted and obviously the goal is the most important thing, but it's a useful way to look at who is creating good quality opportunities - either for themselves or for others - and then to be able to look at why those aren't being converted.

Look at Ojo for example.

Since the Feyenoord game he has 0 goals and 1 assists in 628 minutes. His xG is 0.95 and his xA is 0.81 which suggests he probably should have scored 1 goal in that time.

But if you look at the figures from Day 1 to the Feyenoord game he had 5 goals (4.26xG) and 4 assists (3.61xA) from 931 minutes. With the expected goals/assists figures being pretty comparable to the actual totals, it seemed pretty sustainable numbers and didn't indicate that such a big drop in performance was that likely.

You then need to dig into the next level and figure out where the dip in form is coming from? Variable things like level of opposition or being a younger player or a wide player going through a pretty natural dip in performance or something more specific?

Or it could be something much easier to identify.

In those first 931 minutes up to the end of the Feyenoord game, Ojo attempted 70 shots with 28 on target.

In the 628 minutes since then, he's attempted 15 shots with only 5 being on target. A huge reduction. Less shots = less goals.

So the xG & xA numbers help to form a picture for analysis and you can use them as a jumping off point to look at any underlying issues.
 
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OnlyOneAmoruso said:
Yes and no, I guess.

It allows for human error which definitive stats like goals & assists don't.

If Kent beats 5 men, lays the ball on a plate for Alfie one yard out and he skies it then using this model Kent still gets 'credit' for creating the chance (xA) as 9/10 that would be scored, there's just an error outside Kent's control that stopped it. Morelos also gets a high xG rating for getting himself into an area of the pitch where he's very likely to score.

That sounds like a bit of a reach granted and obviously the goal is the most important thing, but it's a useful way to look at who is creating good quality opportunities - either for themselves or for others - and then to be able to look at why those aren't being converted.

Look at Ojo for example.

Since the Feyenoord game he has 0 goals and 1 assists in 628 minutes. His xG is 0.95 and his xA is 0.81 which suggests he probably should have scored 1 goal in that time.

But if you look at the figures from Day 1 to the Feyenoord game he had 5 goals (4.26xG) and 4 assists (3.61xA) from 931 minutes. With the expected goals/assists figures being pretty comparable to the actual totals, it seemed pretty sustainable numbers and didn't indicate that such a big drop in performance was that likely.

You then need to dig into the next level and figure out where the dip in form is coming from? Variable things like level of opposition or being a younger player or a wide player going through a pretty natural dip in performance or something more specific?

Or it could be something much easier to identify.

In those first 931 minutes up to the end of the Feyenoord game, Ojo attempted 70 shots with 28 on target.

In the 628 minutes since then, he's attempted 15 shots with only 5 being on target. A huge reduction. Less shots = less goals.

So the xG & xA numbers help to form a picture for analysis and you can use them as a jumping off point to look at any underlying issues.
Click to expand...

I really do appreciate the explanation and I can see how some folk find this in depth analysis useful.
But in effect it doesn't tell you much you can't figure out for yourself by just watching it. A bit like most American sports where they bombard viewers with stats, as if you can't just enjoy it for yourself.
And I genuinely don't get why a striker gets any "credit" for missing a sitter. That must be why that big lump at Hibs is their highest rated as he has missed loads of them.

I might join the modern world eventually :))
 
dh1963 said:
I really do appreciate the explanation and I can see how some folk find this in depth analysis useful.
But in effect it doesn't tell you much you can't figure out for yourself by just watching it. A bit like most American sports where they bombard viewers with stats, as if you can't just enjoy it for yourself.
And I genuinely don't get why a striker gets any "credit" for missing a sitter. That must be why that big lump at Hibs is their highest rated as he has missed loads of them.

I might join the modern world eventually :))
Click to expand...

No problem :D

"He's done everything but score"
"He's done the hard part"

It's putting context around these type of phrases that commentators use - has he actually? Was it a good opportunity?

If a player is scoring highly on xG or xA but isn't actually delivering goals & assists then that can be useful too, as you have some more detail rather than just going on the eye.

The key for me is using both the numbers and what you see together before making any judgements.
 
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