VAR and Goal Betting

Superrangers

Well-Known Member
#1
At the World Cup it felt like there were many more penalties given but things seem to have settled down and VAR actually seems to lead to far fewer goals. Many goals awarded in play seem to be reversed, in Spain in particular but also as we have seen tonight in the CL. The clock also doesn’t stop when they review, meaning a double whammy for in play betting ‘goal before X minutes,’ yet the odds have not adjusted. Seems that it’s a bit of a con at this stage from the betting companies.

Thoughts?
 

govwalker

Well-Known Member
#2
At the World Cup it felt like there were many more penalties given but things seem to have settled down and VAR actually seems to lead to far fewer goals. Many goals awarded in play seem to be reversed, in Spain in particular but also as we have seen tonight in the CL. The clock also doesn’t stop when they review, meaning a double whammy for in play betting ‘goal before X minutes,’ yet the odds have not adjusted. Seems that it’s a bit of a con at this stage from the betting companies.

Thoughts?
Yep definitely.

Fucking Nantes on Sunday had 3 goals disallowed to VAR. I had it for over 2.5 goals and was cracking up as it was only 1-0. Ended up 2-1 but a later game fcked me up.

It's a total nightmare for people betting with "Cash Out" facilities.
 

Superrangers

Well-Known Member
#3
Yep definitely.

Fucking Nantes on Sunday had 3 goals disallowed to VAR. I had it for over 2.5 goals and was cracking up as it was only 1-0. Ended up 2-1 but a later game fcked me up.

It's a total nightmare for people betting with "Cash Out" facilities.
Yep been pumped on the cash out several times.
 

alex wright

Well-Known Member
#4
At the World Cup it felt like there were many more penalties given but things seem to have settled down and VAR actually seems to lead to far fewer goals. Many goals awarded in play seem to be reversed, in Spain in particular but also as we have seen tonight in the CL. The clock also doesn’t stop when they review, meaning a double whammy for in play betting ‘goal before X minutes,’ yet the odds have not adjusted. Seems that it’s a bit of a con at this stage from the betting companies.

Thoughts?
Why is it a con if the odds haven't been adjusted? Surely you should be playing the Unders and reaping the benefit?
 

JayDee

Well-Known Member
#5
If you win something when a goal's scored you should grab the money in case they get VAR on it! (Not sure if it ever actually works that way.)
 

alex wright

Well-Known Member
#8
And if there’s a goal?

The whole point is that I gamble on games where I think there might be a goal before a certain point.
But if you believe, because of the introduction of VAR, that the odds now favour Unders or No Goal Before and the market hasn't been adjusted is it not a bit silly to bet the opposite way?
 

The_Degan

Well-Known Member
#9
And if there’s a goal?

The whole point is that I gamble on games where I think there might be a goal before a certain point.
The single most important thing when betting is the price . So if your original statement is true why would you still want to bet on goals ?
 

Superrangers

Well-Known Member
#10
But if you believe, because of the introduction of VAR, that the odds now favour Unders or No Goal Before and the market hasn't been adjusted is it not a bit silly to bet the opposite way?
It’s not really because I expect a goal to be goal. It’s admittedly all up in the air, from both sides as it all depends on circumstances. You’d think there would be more penalties but at the same time even more goals are being disallowed. Time will tell.
 

Superrangers

Well-Known Member
#11
The single most important thing when betting is the price . So if your original statement is true why would you still want to bet on goals ?
Maybe I have still to adjust? But the likelihood of goals remains the same but some will be disallowed. I don’t remember as many contentious goals, maybe that is the issue.
 

The_Degan

Well-Known Member
#12
Maybe I have still to adjust? But the likelihood of goals remains the same but some will be disallowed. I don’t remember as many contentious goals, maybe that is the issue.
Nope . Your mistake is not considering the price . Margins are small enough already but backing goals is very hard to get an edge anyways as it’s what most punters want to do . Much the same as favourites . Will get winners for sure but bookies make their money giving you an incorrect price .
 

Superrangers

Well-Known Member
#13
Nope . Your mistake is not considering the price . Margins are small enough already but backing goals is very hard to get an edge anyways as it’s what most punters want to do . Much the same as favourites . Will get winners for sure but bookies make their money giving you an incorrect price .
Perhaps but the ‘rich bookies’ argument is easy and market shocks can go either way, eg more pens in the WC. It just seems right now that the disallowing of goals is outweighing it. The change could go ether way.
 

The_Degan

Well-Known Member
#14
Perhaps but the ‘rich bookies’ argument is easy and market shocks can go either way, eg more pens in the WC. It just seems right now that the disallowing of goals is outweighing it. The change could go ether way.
Don’t think I mentioned a rich bookie did I ? My point is your missing how they make their money . They offer odds below what they believe the true odds are with a margin built in . Easiest example is roulette the one green zero builds in all those winnings . They give you 35/1 on a 36/1 shot . People don’t think it’s a lot but for every £100 they spin they lose £3 roughly there will be ups and downs it’s called variance but it’s an unbeatable game. Exact same principle stands for sports betting.
 

The_Degan

Well-Known Member
#15
Though I’m not suggesting you can’t beat sports betting , it is very difficult though ( and the fact they close accounts they don’t think are profitable means it almost is ) . But most punters bet the same and go for what they think will happen regardless of price and don’t use the many advantages available to them . For example to you shop around for the best price ?
 
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