Kerrydale Meltdown -Europa League Edition

BroomloanWATP

Well-Known Member
I dare someone on here to try and work this one out :D

Whilst I don’t think luck is the reason we put in such a poor display on Saturday- anyone watching the game could tell you that Celtic deserved to get beat- I do think short-term poor luck played its part in ensuring we had a makeshift team in place for Saturday.

Luck is present in every game, e.g. a shot ball ricocheting into the path of an attacker instead of going out for a goal kick. And when considering injuries, or covid-19 related issues, a team can be unlucky over the course a number of weeks/months. In the long-run, luck should even out, e.g. a perfectly weighted coin tossed thousands of times, there will be cases where there are long runs of heads but, in the end, there should be roughly as many heads as tails.

However, luck in football is perhaps more prevalent than other sports due to the low scoring levels, and this was one the reasons football analytics began to consider expected goals (xG) alongside real goals. The aim of this move was to remove short-term luck from the data to help analyse the underlying performance of a team (although simpler models do this whilst ignoring the quality of the player shooting, which may bias the result more than luck itself).

The effect of short-term luck can therefore take longer to even out as it’s easier for a team to outscore the expected goals for a length of time or underscore expected goals if their best goal scorer missing from the team (i.e. like Saturday).

Unfortunately, the time taken for luck to even itself out exceeds the length of a season. To show this look at last year, Celtic were the better team and won the league by 0.36 points/game (13-14 points over the course of a normal season).

Taking the top two teams records we have the following win/lose/draw percentages:



Let’s assume that we know those figures above are the chance of a I prefer men in every game played over a 38-game season (simple assumption, but this is to illustrate point). If we then play out the season randomly 10,000 times for each team, we see the following pattern:



There is a wide-range of outcomes possible over the course of 10,000 simulations of the same 38-game season using last year’s figures. To illustrate this here are some numbers surrounding the above distribution:


Over the 10,000 Celtic season simulations, the minimum points we’d have ended with was 76, whereas the maximum was full points (although this was less than 0.3% of the time)! For Rangers this was 59 and 110 (one such case in 10,000).

More helpfully, the bottom/top rows on the table show the bottom/top 5% of the simulations. For example, the above table states that Celtic got less than 92 points in less than 5% of the simulations and more than 109 points in less than 5% of the simulations. For Rangers, the gap between bottom and top 5% is far wider, which helps to illustrate what ‘luck’ can do.

Finally, even if we know that Celtic are the better team (i.e. assuming the I prefer men record above is true), there will be occasions when Rangers win a 38-game season through luck. Intuitively this is true as well, when thinking back to 02-03 and 04-05.

If we pair each of the 10,000 simulations from Celtic with one from Rangers, and compare the points, then, excluding ties, we see the following win rates:


This means that even though Rangers were the worse team (their I prefer men rate is inferior), they won the league in 5.7% of the 38-game seasons.

The main point is that luck is an inherent component of a short 38-game season. Whilst luck should even itself out over the long-term, over the short-to-medium-term this can play a massive factor.
We are through the f.ucking looking glass here people.
 

rupertdabear

Well-Known Member
Assuming this is genuine, and not a wind up, it's a great example of misuse of Bayesian statistics. He's taking a sample (last seasons results) and assuming that's a valid prior for computing future results. Which is obviously ridiculously simplistic, and it's why every financial services advert you see has a line like "past performance is not indicative of future returns" or similar in the small print.
yip if that worked i'd be lying on some warm beach sucking cocktails from a straw :))this guy has it all worked out mate ....not
 

Corkinator

Well-Known Member
Inter are occasionally known as fc internazionale Milano. AC Milan have always used the English spelling, as you say because of their British links.
Inter were also founded by a Brit, were they not, I remember they had a St. George’s flag kit to honour their English roots.
 

lwl

Well-Known Member
They've got an "I prefer men" filter on their forum too?

No. When @Ubik has copied and pasted it here, FF's filter has kicked in and replaced W L D with 'I prefer men', because the FF admins have set up the filter to work on an l (L) being used in place of an i by folk attempting to beat the filter.

I know this because I tried to use W L D in one of my posts and thought "what the fùck???" before working out what had happened.

I wasn't using it in a mental stats headshrinker of a post explaining why we never get beat by a better team, but instead by a 1 in a 10,000 stroke of luck or something.
 
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RWL12

Well-Known Member
I dare someone on here to try and work this one out :D

Whilst I don’t think luck is the reason we put in such a poor display on Saturday- anyone watching the game could tell you that Celtic deserved to get beat- I do think short-term poor luck played its part in ensuring we had a makeshift team in place for Saturday.

Luck is present in every game, e.g. a shot ball ricocheting into the path of an attacker instead of going out for a goal kick. And when considering injuries, or covid-19 related issues, a team can be unlucky over the course a number of weeks/months. In the long-run, luck should even out, e.g. a perfectly weighted coin tossed thousands of times, there will be cases where there are long runs of heads but, in the end, there should be roughly as many heads as tails.

However, luck in football is perhaps more prevalent than other sports due to the low scoring levels, and this was one the reasons football analytics began to consider expected goals (xG) alongside real goals. The aim of this move was to remove short-term luck from the data to help analyse the underlying performance of a team (although simpler models do this whilst ignoring the quality of the player shooting, which may bias the result more than luck itself).

The effect of short-term luck can therefore take longer to even out as it’s easier for a team to outscore the expected goals for a length of time or underscore expected goals if their best goal scorer missing from the team (i.e. like Saturday).

Unfortunately, the time taken for luck to even itself out exceeds the length of a season. To show this look at last year, Celtic were the better team and won the league by 0.36 points/game (13-14 points over the course of a normal season).

Taking the top two teams records we have the following win/lose/draw percentages:



Let’s assume that we know those figures above are the chance of a I prefer men in every game played over a 38-game season (simple assumption, but this is to illustrate point). If we then play out the season randomly 10,000 times for each team, we see the following pattern:



There is a wide-range of outcomes possible over the course of 10,000 simulations of the same 38-game season using last year’s figures. To illustrate this here are some numbers surrounding the above distribution:


Over the 10,000 Celtic season simulations, the minimum points we’d have ended with was 76, whereas the maximum was full points (although this was less than 0.3% of the time)! For Rangers this was 59 and 110 (one such case in 10,000).

More helpfully, the bottom/top rows on the table show the bottom/top 5% of the simulations. For example, the above table states that Celtic got less than 92 points in less than 5% of the simulations and more than 109 points in less than 5% of the simulations. For Rangers, the gap between bottom and top 5% is far wider, which helps to illustrate what ‘luck’ can do.

Finally, even if we know that Celtic are the better team (i.e. assuming the I prefer men record above is true), there will be occasions when Rangers win a 38-game season through luck. Intuitively this is true as well, when thinking back to 02-03 and 04-05.

If we pair each of the 10,000 simulations from Celtic with one from Rangers, and compare the points, then, excluding ties, we see the following win rates:


This means that even though Rangers were the worse team (their I prefer men rate is inferior), they won the league in 5.7% of the 38-game seasons.

The main point is that luck is an inherent component of a short 38-game season. Whilst luck should even itself out over the long-term, over the short-to-medium-term this can play a massive factor.

One of the best posts Ive read
 

Balogun1

Well-Known Member
Couple of comments from the paedoboard...

" got to say from what I`ve seen so far.....Duffy is an utter donkey. he`s worse then Jack Hendry."

" Shane Duff "


He's not the most popular player, is he?
Hopefully they sign him permanently. Start the bidding at £8m
 

Biffa

Well-Known Member
I dare someone on here to try and work this one out :D

Whilst I don’t think luck is the reason we put in such a poor display on Saturday- anyone watching the game could tell you that Celtic deserved to get beat- I do think short-term poor luck played its part in ensuring we had a makeshift team in place for Saturday.

Luck is present in every game, e.g. a shot ball ricocheting into the path of an attacker instead of going out for a goal kick. And when considering injuries, or covid-19 related issues, a team can be unlucky over the course a number of weeks/months. In the long-run, luck should even out, e.g. a perfectly weighted coin tossed thousands of times, there will be cases where there are long runs of heads but, in the end, there should be roughly as many heads as tails.

However, luck in football is perhaps more prevalent than other sports due to the low scoring levels, and this was one the reasons football analytics began to consider expected goals (xG) alongside real goals. The aim of this move was to remove short-term luck from the data to help analyse the underlying performance of a team (although simpler models do this whilst ignoring the quality of the player shooting, which may bias the result more than luck itself).

The effect of short-term luck can therefore take longer to even out as it’s easier for a team to outscore the expected goals for a length of time or underscore expected goals if their best goal scorer missing from the team (i.e. like Saturday).

Unfortunately, the time taken for luck to even itself out exceeds the length of a season. To show this look at last year, Celtic were the better team and won the league by 0.36 points/game (13-14 points over the course of a normal season).

Taking the top two teams records we have the following win/lose/draw percentages:



Let’s assume that we know those figures above are the chance of a I prefer men in every game played over a 38-game season (simple assumption, but this is to illustrate point). If we then play out the season randomly 10,000 times for each team, we see the following pattern:



There is a wide-range of outcomes possible over the course of 10,000 simulations of the same 38-game season using last year’s figures. To illustrate this here are some numbers surrounding the above distribution:


Over the 10,000 Celtic season simulations, the minimum points we’d have ended with was 76, whereas the maximum was full points (although this was less than 0.3% of the time)! For Rangers this was 59 and 110 (one such case in 10,000).

More helpfully, the bottom/top rows on the table show the bottom/top 5% of the simulations. For example, the above table states that Celtic got less than 92 points in less than 5% of the simulations and more than 109 points in less than 5% of the simulations. For Rangers, the gap between bottom and top 5% is far wider, which helps to illustrate what ‘luck’ can do.

Finally, even if we know that Celtic are the better team (i.e. assuming the I prefer men record above is true), there will be occasions when Rangers win a 38-game season through luck. Intuitively this is true as well, when thinking back to 02-03 and 04-05.

If we pair each of the 10,000 simulations from Celtic with one from Rangers, and compare the points, then, excluding ties, we see the following win rates:


This means that even though Rangers were the worse team (their I prefer men rate is inferior), they won the league in 5.7% of the 38-game seasons.

The main point is that luck is an inherent component of a short 38-game season. Whilst luck should even itself out over the long-term, over the short-to-medium-term this can play a massive factor.
What’s that old saying?

There are Lies; Damned Lies; and Statistics!
 

Lucifer666

Well-Known Member
I dare someone on here to try and work this one out :D

Whilst I don’t think luck is the reason we put in such a poor display on Saturday- anyone watching the game could tell you that Celtic deserved to get beat- I do think short-term poor luck played its part in ensuring we had a makeshift team in place for Saturday.

Luck is present in every game, e.g. a shot ball ricocheting into the path of an attacker instead of going out for a goal kick. And when considering injuries, or covid-19 related issues, a team can be unlucky over the course a number of weeks/months. In the long-run, luck should even out, e.g. a perfectly weighted coin tossed thousands of times, there will be cases where there are long runs of heads but, in the end, there should be roughly as many heads as tails.

However, luck in football is perhaps more prevalent than other sports due to the low scoring levels, and this was one the reasons football analytics began to consider expected goals (xG) alongside real goals. The aim of this move was to remove short-term luck from the data to help analyse the underlying performance of a team (although simpler models do this whilst ignoring the quality of the player shooting, which may bias the result more than luck itself).

The effect of short-term luck can therefore take longer to even out as it’s easier for a team to outscore the expected goals for a length of time or underscore expected goals if their best goal scorer missing from the team (i.e. like Saturday).

Unfortunately, the time taken for luck to even itself out exceeds the length of a season. To show this look at last year, Celtic were the better team and won the league by 0.36 points/game (13-14 points over the course of a normal season).

Taking the top two teams records we have the following win/lose/draw percentages:



Let’s assume that we know those figures above are the chance of a I prefer men in every game played over a 38-game season (simple assumption, but this is to illustrate point). If we then play out the season randomly 10,000 times for each team, we see the following pattern:



There is a wide-range of outcomes possible over the course of 10,000 simulations of the same 38-game season using last year’s figures. To illustrate this here are some numbers surrounding the above distribution:


Over the 10,000 Celtic season simulations, the minimum points we’d have ended with was 76, whereas the maximum was full points (although this was less than 0.3% of the time)! For Rangers this was 59 and 110 (one such case in 10,000).

More helpfully, the bottom/top rows on the table show the bottom/top 5% of the simulations. For example, the above table states that Celtic got less than 92 points in less than 5% of the simulations and more than 109 points in less than 5% of the simulations. For Rangers, the gap between bottom and top 5% is far wider, which helps to illustrate what ‘luck’ can do.

Finally, even if we know that Celtic are the better team (i.e. assuming the I prefer men record above is true), there will be occasions when Rangers win a 38-game season through luck. Intuitively this is true as well, when thinking back to 02-03 and 04-05.

If we pair each of the 10,000 simulations from Celtic with one from Rangers, and compare the points, then, excluding ties, we see the following win rates:


This means that even though Rangers were the worse team (their I prefer men rate is inferior), they won the league in 5.7% of the 38-game seasons.

The main point is that luck is an inherent component of a short 38-game season. Whilst luck should even itself out over the long-term, over the short-to-medium-term this can play a massive factor.

 

St Andrews Bear

Well-Known Member
Has a pot 1 side in the Europa League ever finished bottom of their group?
Were Spartak not the pot one team in our group 2 years ago?
Edit no they weren’t but Anderlecht were the pot one team in Group D but finished bottom with 3 points.
timmy might toil to even match that this year
There are likely plenty more tbh just can’t be assed going through the records
 
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yardie

Well-Known Member
I dare someone on here to try and work this one out :D

Whilst I don’t think luck is the reason we put in such a poor display on Saturday- anyone watching the game could tell you that Celtic deserved to get beat- I do think short-term poor luck played its part in ensuring we had a makeshift team in place for Saturday.

Luck is present in every game, e.g. a shot ball ricocheting into the path of an attacker instead of going out for a goal kick. And when considering injuries, or covid-19 related issues, a team can be unlucky over the course a number of weeks/months. In the long-run, luck should even out, e.g. a perfectly weighted coin tossed thousands of times, there will be cases where there are long runs of heads but, in the end, there should be roughly as many heads as tails.

However, luck in football is perhaps more prevalent than other sports due to the low scoring levels, and this was one the reasons football analytics began to consider expected goals (xG) alongside real goals. The aim of this move was to remove short-term luck from the data to help analyse the underlying performance of a team (although simpler models do this whilst ignoring the quality of the player shooting, which may bias the result more than luck itself).

The effect of short-term luck can therefore take longer to even out as it’s easier for a team to outscore the expected goals for a length of time or underscore expected goals if their best goal scorer missing from the team (i.e. like Saturday).

Unfortunately, the time taken for luck to even itself out exceeds the length of a season. To show this look at last year, Celtic were the better team and won the league by 0.36 points/game (13-14 points over the course of a normal season).

Taking the top two teams records we have the following win/lose/draw percentages:



Let’s assume that we know those figures above are the chance of a I prefer men in every game played over a 38-game season (simple assumption, but this is to illustrate point). If we then play out the season randomly 10,000 times for each team, we see the following pattern:



There is a wide-range of outcomes possible over the course of 10,000 simulations of the same 38-game season using last year’s figures. To illustrate this here are some numbers surrounding the above distribution:


Over the 10,000 Celtic season simulations, the minimum points we’d have ended with was 76, whereas the maximum was full points (although this was less than 0.3% of the time)! For Rangers this was 59 and 110 (one such case in 10,000).

More helpfully, the bottom/top rows on the table show the bottom/top 5% of the simulations. For example, the above table states that Celtic got less than 92 points in less than 5% of the simulations and more than 109 points in less than 5% of the simulations. For Rangers, the gap between bottom and top 5% is far wider, which helps to illustrate what ‘luck’ can do.

Finally, even if we know that Celtic are the better team (i.e. assuming the I prefer men record above is true), there will be occasions when Rangers win a 38-game season through luck. Intuitively this is true as well, when thinking back to 02-03 and 04-05.

If we pair each of the 10,000 simulations from Celtic with one from Rangers, and compare the points, then, excluding ties, we see the following win rates:


This means that even though Rangers were the worse team (their I prefer men rate is inferior), they won the league in 5.7% of the 38-game seasons.

The main point is that luck is an inherent component of a short 38-game season. Whilst luck should even itself out over the long-term, over the short-to-medium-term this can play a massive factor.
This guys a genius, can someone contact him and ask him to rerun his model filtering out the impact of cheating referee bastards?
 

largsloyalist

Well-Known Member
This guys a genius, can someone contact him and ask him to rerun his model filtering out the impact of cheating referee bastards?

He's not a genius. Just an tarrier with too much time on his hands and a need to convince himself all is well.

Only a matter of time before this is quoted by all the usual suspects
 

kenikinif

Well-Known Member
The jammiest spawniest mhob ever complaining about luck ach well i suppose they need another angle to hold onto
I hope good bears are mixing things up nicely on their forums with resolute defence of big duffers and the bhigot manager
 

MurciaBear

Well-Known Member
Esperemos lo mismo el domingo(may be a few words out) and yes we are the people,didn't think that would compute in Spanish!
:) oh yes, am sure Sunday will be a good day. WATP, even in my still very limited grasp of the lingo translates ok: after all, there are certain phrases you MUST get a grasp of in your new country. As Stevie G once said...vamonos ...let's go!!
 

carlosapicella

Well-Known Member
:) oh yes, am sure Sunday will be a good day. WATP, even in my still very limited grasp of the lingo translates ok: after all, there are certain phrases you MUST get a grasp of in your new country. As Stevie G once said...vamonos ...let's go!!
My Spanish is not too bad not too good a conversing,GF. was always trying,
But wont let her now last time ordering tapas she done the ultimate asked for tapa de Polla. instead of pollo never seen so many guys at the bar with willing smiles on their faces !
 
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