Revised Odds for the Title

Gallant_Few

Well-Known Member
I got us at 12/5 at the start of the season
with Liverpool at 5/2
I am kicking myself now for not getting that double on. Spoke about it to my mate over the summer was getting it at 9/1 and never got round to having a bet on it.

Will celebrate just as mental tho when (if) it comes in.

Best of luck pal.
 

Chris01

Well-Known Member
£100 bet on Rangers +8.5 points to win the league with the local Celtic fan.

He isn’t best pleased and it’s glorious!
 

ScottXC

Well-Known Member
I got us at 12/5.

£10 accumulator returns £1508.20.

Rangers (12/5)
Dundee Utd (5/2)
Juventus (8/15)
Leeds to be promoted (15/8)
Brighton to be relegated (15/8)



Brighton one I'm not too sure about currently..
 

Kimarcus

Well-Known Member
Fivethirtyeight has us at a 58% of winning the league this season for the first time so far.
 

TheBearNecessities

Active Member
My cock up, figures wrong - I am talking about the future like and not now, meaning if it gets to the point where there is a 10 point gap say would you lay off more.

Basically you lay a £1000 bet on Rangers at 1.10
- if it wins it costs you £100 so you are £900 ahead overall
- if it loses you get the £1000 so you are £1000 ahead overall

I ain't used betfair in ages to tell truth, used to find it easy using the WHAT IF option. Think you must have put the first bet on at a bookies though and not on betfair so it makes it a bit harder to equate all in all.

You were meant to say "March when we are 10 clear mate" to my original comment!
I see what you mean now, the short answer is no, because when I layed the bet I deliberately chose the numbers that mean I'm quids in for a rangers title win and breaking even if it doesn't happen.

That way I get the fun/drama of a bet but none of the risk.

But I admit it will be tempting when the odds shorten that much come march!
 

Kimarcus

Well-Known Member
It's interesting that both 538 and Modern Fitba are projecting us to win the league this year.

It shows just how much better our underlying numbers are than Celtic's.
Not sure Modern Fitba are totally. Rangers Report's model on twitter has us predicted to winning it atm but SethMetrics still has them winning it, although the gap is closing, because of that higher % of chances taken. However the % of chances that they are scoring is unsustainable and we are creating a lot more shots on targets a game than they are. Keep getting more shots on target a game and we will be in with a great shout.

EDIT: Also 538 can get things wrong. They said Clinton had a 71% of winning the election in 2016 BUT that was actually a lower % chance for her than you'd have got in the bookies or in other models at the time.
 

Big Buff

Well-Known Member
Not sure Modern Fitba are totally. Rangers Report's model on twitter has us predicted to winning it atm but SethMetrics still has them winning it, although the gap is closing, because of that higher % of chances taken. However the % of chances that they are scoring is unsustainable and we are creating a lot more shots on targets a game than they are. Keep getting more shots on target a game and we will be in with a great shout.

EDIT: Also 538 can get things wrong. They said Clinton had a 71% of winning the election in 2016 BUT that was actually a lower % chance for her than you'd have got in the bookies or in other models at the time.
Well ultimately these are all models based on probability, so the underdog has to win sometimes. That doesn't mean the model is wrong.

And MF has us ahead in the xG table by a significant distance over them.
 

Kimarcus

Well-Known Member
And MF has us ahead in the xG table by a significant distance over them.
Yes and they are outperforming their xG by significantly more than we are so you'd expect regression at some point, which Livi result could be an example, also their attacking midfielders do not seem to have particularly good results so far.
 

pelem

Well-Known Member
Folk are only having a discussion and in my case tongue in cheek.

Lighten up ffs!

Ps. You forgot 1690 at the end of your U/N.

So you make a tongue in cheek comment when you don't really mean it's in the bag.

Whit the tea leaves ?.

You really don't make a lot of sense.

We either can win it or we cannae, or will or wullnie.

Tongue in cheek or no tongue in cheek. You decide.


PS, you're season ain't finished.
 

Shengus Malengus

Well-Known Member
So you make a tongue in cheek comment when you don't really mean it's in the bag.

Whit the tea leaves ?.

You really don't make a lot of sense.

We either can win it or we cannae, or will or wullnie.

Tongue in cheek or no tongue in cheek. You decide.


PS, you're season ain't finished.
Of course I think we can win it, but for me to say it’s in the bag after 8 games is quite clearly not to be taken seriously.

I forgot to add a wee smiley face for the hard of thinking.
 
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Kimarcus

Well-Known Member
2008-2009 technically but that was in late December.

EDIT: If it has to be the first OF game total and also at home then 94-95 would be the last time but they didn't even finish 2nd that season.

Also last 4 title wins we got at least 4 points from the OF games in all of them at an average of 6 points a season.
 

Shengus Malengus

Well-Known Member
Calm down??? I’m asking cause I have a holiday in may pmsl.

think it’s yourself that needs to lighten up a little bit
Where did I ask you to calm down?

And I'm sure you're not daft enough to not realise how your post could be interpreted. Especially as you've mentioned hee haw about holidays in May.
 

Shengus Malengus

Well-Known Member
So you make a tongue in cheek comment when you don't really mean it's in the bag.

Whit the tea leaves ?.

You really don't make a lot of sense.

We either can win it or we cannae, or will or wullnie.

Tongue in cheek or no tongue in cheek. You decide.


PS, you're season ain't finished.
What gibberish.

Contender for ironic post of the year. :))
 

AriseSirWalter

Well-Known Member
Not sure Modern Fitba are totally. Rangers Report's model on twitter has us predicted to winning it atm but SethMetrics still has them winning it, although the gap is closing, because of that higher % of chances taken. However the % of chances that they are scoring is unsustainable and we are creating a lot more shots on targets a game than they are. Keep getting more shots on target a game and we will be in with a great shout.

EDIT: Also 538 can get things wrong. They said Clinton had a 71% of winning the election in 2016 BUT that was actually a lower % chance for her than you'd have got in the bookies or in other models at the time.
Do you have a link to SethMetrics at all mate? Tried to search for it but can't find anything.
 

Kimarcus

Well-Known Member
Do you have a link to SethMetrics at all mate? Tried to search for it but can't find anything.
Rangers Report saying that we are projected to win by 14 points:


Still early and has to be tempered by the knowledge that we've played 5 at home out of 8. Will be good to see what it looks like at the next international break with 4 away games out of 5 till then.
 

NDC bear forever

Well-Known Member
Rangers Report saying that we are projected to win by 14 points:


Still early and has to be tempered by the knowledge that we've played 5 at home out of 8. Will be good to see what it looks like at the next international break with 4 away games out of 5 till then.
F%ck me if that happens then we will surely be having a title party at parkhead. Could you imagine?
 

Kimarcus

Well-Known Member
F%ck me if that happens then we will surely be having a title party at parkhead. Could you imagine?
It's not going to happen but the stats are all looking good for us atm. Just need to keep going. Will be tempered by the fact that we've played more home games.
 

NDC bear forever

Well-Known Member
It's not going to happen but the stats are all looking good for us atm. Just need to keep going. Will be tempered by the fact that we've played more home games.
Ano mate. Last season it seems to have got a lot of things right so we’ll just have to hope it’s the same this season.
 

AriseSirWalter

Well-Known Member
Rangers Report saying that we are projected to win by 14 points:


Still early and has to be tempered by the knowledge that we've played 5 at home out of 8. Will be good to see what it looks like at the next international break with 4 away games out of 5 till then.
I assume two extra home games when only 8 games have been played could skew the figures a fair bit, but even taking that into account I assume we’re still looking pretty good?
 

Kimarcus

Well-Known Member
I assume two extra home games when only 8 games have been played could skew the figures a fair bit, but even taking that into account I assume we’re still looking pretty good?
Think it's something like we are doing 26% better than them on average in the home games but 18% worse in the away games. That is excluding the last round of fixtures played though.
 
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