Turnbull's move to celtic could be off

Status
Not open for further replies.
Bearinabluehose said:
Don't belive it's drugs ... not even a stupid wee boy like that could be so stupid knowing he's likely to be undergoing a stringent medical.
Click to expand...

Not saying for a minute that it is drugs, but traces of substances can be detected months after they've been taken. He wouldn't have known this move was in the offing 3 months ago.
 
Plissken said:
How can any man sign for a club where it has been proven at least 6 paedophiles were at large?
Click to expand...

As a poster said above, no sympathy for anyone who signs for them. Signing for them at present, particularly if you currently live in Scotland, means you are accepting the role they have played in this disgusting charade they have going on and that, morally, you are ok with it.

That’s vile, there’s no other way to describe it. They will always be tarnished with this, at least accepting their role in this would be some slight movement toward redemption. I genuinely have no idea how anyone can ignore their background at present.
 
Bluebrox said:
"He's goat a funny knee. We'll gie youse 100 grand as that's pure his value noo an aw that"
Click to expand...

Yep, I mean let's have a think about it. They are telling everyone that they have offered £3.5m for a 19 year old from a mid table SPL club? Aye right Peter!!
 
No chance it’s drugs.

Don’t get me wrong, gear is as readily available as oxygen in the Motherwell area, but no way would he have been doing that.
 
Why do they send their players to Manchester for medicals? Strikes me as odd.
 
Last edited:
tapender said:
Strong rumours the mentally challengeds new DOF is going to be Jeremy Kyle
A spokesman for Celtic says it’s a good fit we need a guy who understands what it takes to play for us
And Jeremy said after I had a chat with the manager I knew I had work to do funny thing is though Lowell has stated my lie detector is not welcome anywhere near the ground go figure !
Click to expand...

I hope this wasn't meant to be funny :eek:
 
Alex Venters said:
As would anyone.
My problem with this "purple patch" viewpont is that it can hardly be descibed as a patch considering he's excelled since breaking into their side. It's been all good thus far.
One of the most important facets of the game is identifying potential before it fully flowers. That ability can save a whole lot of cash while at the same time be an investment for the future.
The great managers all have this ability,Ferguson, Shankly,Paisley,Clough and Wenger to name but a few were all able to see it in a player before most others even gave it a thought.
Click to expand...
One of the best ways of determining whether a sustained run of good play is as a result of form or ability is to look at the underlying numbers and see whether they're good or not.

If they're good, it's ability. If they're not, it's form and he will regress back to the mean.

Turnbulls underlying numbers are not good.
 
Stez64 said:
More so, as there was no such thing as a mobile phone.
Nobody knew about it until they either bought a paper that morning, or when they arrived at work.
There was no work done in the West of Scotland that morning.
Click to expand...

I was working in a mentally challengeds house that morning. Wee chunt was still in his bed and his parents had left for work. Chapped his door and threw the daily record into the room.
Wonderful memories
 
Morelos2106 said:
One of the best ways of determining whether a sustained run of good play is as a result of form or ability is to look at the underlying numbers and see whether they're good or not.

If they're good, it's ability. If they're not, it's form and he will regress back to the mean.

Turnbulls underlying numbers are not good.
Click to expand...
Time will tell but as the old saying goes. There are lies, damned lies and statistics and of course stats can be manipulated to to prove or disprove any particular viewpoint.
 
they certainly seem to be getting a bad reputation down south,that's Chelsea, west Brom and Norwich all had pops at them over the last year, and did liverpool not say they wouldn't loan players to them because of their reputation
 
Alex Venters said:
Time will tell but as the old saying goes. There are lies, damned lies and statistics and of course stats can be manipulated to to prove or disprove any particular viewpoint.
Click to expand...
Of course they can, but these are not traditional statistics. These are advanced metrics specifically designed to measure the actual output of a player.

Rangers have spoken about using these metrics extensively in our scouting so far this season. They're prominently used by the top clubs in European football (Liverpool, Man City etc) and were developed because of the success advanced metrics have had in American sports (baseball being the most famous example).

These metrics are legit.
 
Ardoyne RSC said:
No sympathy for Motherwell either. When you choose to be a Liewell bitch, you can't complain about having a sore arse.
Click to expand...

I totally agree however Motherwell pulling the plug will create alot more negative headlines in their direction along with all the other clubs are are condemned their rancid club recently.
 
Teddy bear said:
They've had a bid accepted for this French defender and now they cant afford Turnbulls fee.
"The banter years" patter is embarrassing btw.
At least wait till we actually win something.
Click to expand...

I seen someone saying this must be how their fans felt when we were kicked down to the 4th tier of Scottish Football, we are nowhere near that level yet surely, especially without a trophy to show for it.

People getting way too ahead of themselves.
 
Fingers1872 said:
It was like a punch to the collective solar plexus of every yahoo on the planet. They still haven't got over it to this day, remember MoJo having to pull out of a charity match due to the threats from the fans of open to all FC.
Click to expand...
Was a great day,considering he was paraded in a yahoo top only 48 hours before,plus I remember when he scored his first goal against them,absolute bedlam:)))))
 
Morelos2106 said:
Of course they can, but these are not traditional statistics. These are advanced metrics specifically designed to measure the actual output of a player.

Rangers have spoken about using these metrics extensively in our scouting so far this season. They're prominently used by the top clubs in European football (Liverpool, Man City etc) and were developed because of the success advanced metrics have had in American sports (baseball being the most famous example).

These metrics are legit.
Click to expand...

Doesn’t the fact that he’s only 19, just broken through into the first team and has plenty of development time have to be factored in? Surely players stats improve as they develop and hit peak performance? Couldn’t his goal stats continually improve, even if there not quite as hot as his current purple patch? Hopefully he’s a failure at Celtic but seems to me that using stats alone to dismiss the signing seems a little shortsighted. Might be my lack of understanding though!
 
Sebo1872 said:
I seen someone saying this must be how their fans felt when we were kicked down to the 4th tier of Scottish Football, we are nowhere near that level yet surely, especially without a trophy to show for it.

People getting way too ahead of themselves.
Click to expand...

Fingers crossed , that’s next year , 55 to them I feel will be like us being demoted , purely as they thought we were gone . But there is something very , very wrong at that club .
 
Scoot1975 said:
Was a great day,considering he was paraded in a yahoo top only 48 hours before,plus I remember when he scored his first goal against them,absolute bedlam:)))))
Click to expand...
This is a nice mental picture, but factually incorrect. Johnston was paraded by them a few days before the 1990 Cup Final versus us. There followed the close season where the deal wasn't completed till him signing for us some 5/6 weeks later.
 
Fuzzy Dunlop said:
Doesn’t the fact that he’s only 19, just broken through into the first team and has plenty of development time have to be factored in? Surely players stats improve as they develop and hit peak performance? Couldn’t his goal stats continually improve, even if there not quite as hot as his current purple patch? Hopefully he’s a failure at Celtic but seems to me that using stats alone to dismiss the signing seems a little shortsighted. Might be my lack of understanding though!
Click to expand...
I get where you're going, but you're looking at it the wrong way IMO.

Instead of looking at his statistical output in terms of raw numbers (goals, assists) and basing your assessment of his potential based on that, you should base your assessment of his potential on the metrics.

The headline is that Celtic are paying £3.25m for a midfielder from Motherwell who scored 15 goals last season. On the face of it, 15 goals last season is a very impressive figure.

BUT

Three of those goals were penalties. While penalties still have to be scored, they're not really a good measure of your worth as a player, because they're high percentage scoring chances and they don't come from open play. And he is unlikely to be taking penalties for Celtic.

Therefore, Turnbull scored 12 goals from open play. Again, still an impressive number, but not as impressive as 15.

Digging into those twelve goals, using an xG model, a significant amount of them were either long range shots that were deflected, or shots that the keeper should have saved. His xG total means that from the chances Turnbull had, you would expect him to score only 4 goals. So he got very, very lucky to score 12 goals from those opportunities. Even if he was a very good finisher, you would only expect him to put away 4/5/6 goals. 12 is a stastical outlier that simply has to regress to the mean.

So the headline is that Celtic are buying a 15 goal-per-season midfielder. But if Turnbull hadn't got lucky, Celtic would be buying a goal-scoring midfielder who scored 4 goals and 3 penalties. For £3.25m. From Motherwell.

And FWIW, Turnbull is a goal scoring midfielder, because the metrics also show:

His defensive stats are poor compared to other SPFL midfielders (doesn't win the ball back, doesn't make interceptions, average at closing down)
His playmaking stats are league average at best (average for xA, average at dribbling, average for giving the ball away).

The source:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1141759490334834688
 
IMHO, the Scum, much like they did with other Scottish talent, sign him up, let him loose in the Premiership with superior players around them and hope they evolve enough so that a Southampton comes fishing again, after some megalomanical headlines in the Scottish mhedia.

Matter of fact, whether they sin him or not, when last we played them I didn`t even know half of their team ...
 
Morelos2106 said:
I get where you're going, but you're looking at it the wrong way IMO.

Instead of looking at his statistical output in terms of raw numbers (goals, assists) and basing your assessment of his potential based on that, you should base your assessment of his potential on the metrics.

The headline is that Celtic are paying £3.25m for a midfielder from Motherwell who scored 15 goals last season. On the face of it, 15 goals last season is a very impressive figure.

BUT

Three of those goals were penalties. While penalties still have to be scored, they're not really a good measure of your worth as a player, because they're high percentage scoring chances and they don't come from open play. And he is unlikely to be taking penalties for Celtic.

Therefore, Turnbull scored 12 goals from open play. Again, still an impressive number, but not as impressive as 15.

Digging into those twelve goals, using an xG model, a significant amount of them were either long range shots that were deflected, or shots that the keeper should have saved. His xG total means that from the chances Turnbull had, you would expect him to score only 4 goals. So he got very, very lucky to score 12 goals from those opportunities. Even if he was a very good finisher, you would only expect him to put away 4/5/6 goals. 12 is a stastical outlier that simply has to regress to the mean.

So the headline is that Celtic are buying a 15 goal-per-season midfielder. But if Turnbull hadn't got lucky, Celtic would be buying a goal-scoring midfielder who scored 4 goals and 3 penalties. For £3.25m. From Motherwell.

And FWIW, Turnbull is a goal scoring midfielder, because the metrics also show:

His defensive stats are poor compared to other SPFL midfielders (doesn't win the ball back, doesn't make interceptions, average at closing down)
His playmaking stats are league average at best (average for xA, average at dribbling, average for giving the ball away).

The source:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1141759490334834688
Click to expand...

Interesting. Thanks for the detail.
 
Morelos2106 said:
I get where you're going, but you're looking at it the wrong way IMO.

Instead of looking at his statistical output in terms of raw numbers (goals, assists) and basing your assessment of his potential based on that, you should base your assessment of his potential on the metrics.

The headline is that Celtic are paying £3.25m for a midfielder from Motherwell who scored 15 goals last season. On the face of it, 15 goals last season is a very impressive figure.

BUT

Three of those goals were penalties. While penalties still have to be scored, they're not really a good measure of your worth as a player, because they're high percentage scoring chances and they don't come from open play. And he is unlikely to be taking penalties for Celtic.

Therefore, Turnbull scored 12 goals from open play. Again, still an impressive number, but not as impressive as 15.

Digging into those twelve goals, using an xG model, a significant amount of them were either long range shots that were deflected, or shots that the keeper should have saved. His xG total means that from the chances Turnbull had, you would expect him to score only 4 goals. So he got very, very lucky to score 12 goals from those opportunities. Even if he was a very good finisher, you would only expect him to put away 4/5/6 goals. 12 is a stastical outlier that simply has to regress to the mean.

So the headline is that Celtic are buying a 15 goal-per-season midfielder. But if Turnbull hadn't got lucky, Celtic would be buying a goal-scoring midfielder who scored 4 goals and 3 penalties. For £3.25m. From Motherwell.

And FWIW, Turnbull is a goal scoring midfielder, because the metrics also show:

His defensive stats are poor compared to other SPFL midfielders (doesn't win the ball back, doesn't make interceptions, average at closing down)
His playmaking stats are league average at best (average for xA, average at dribbling, average for giving the ball away).

The source:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1141759490334834688
Click to expand...

I'm not entirely sure how the xG metric is worked out, but having had an (objective as possible) look at his goals:

3 pens (as you've pointed out), 1 wicked deflection, 1 gk howler, 1 gk should have had covered.

Not all the other goals were crackers or anything, most of them were pretty simple, which is why I'm wondering why the xG is only 4.45, what is that based on?
 
Fuzzy Dunlop said:
Interesting. Thanks for the detail.
Click to expand...
It can be a bit wild to try and get your head around (and I know my post wasn't exactly succinct) but the gist of it is this: David Turnbull got lucky last season, his stats suggest he is a league average midfielder and he needs to develop at an incredibly fast rate to be worth the outlay.

That's not to say that it won't happen. Just that it's very unlikely. For every transfer, there is a probability of success. The probability of Turnbull turning into a superstar at Celtic is small.
 
Teddy bear said:
They've had a bid accepted for this French defender and now they cant afford Turnbulls fee.
"The banter years" patter is embarrassing btw.
At least wait till we actually win something.
Click to expand...
You're easily embarrassed btw.

It's OK to call them out as the stumble from one calamitous event to another!

It's part of getting back on top.
 
Morelos2106 said:
It can be a bit wild to try and get your head around (and I know my post wasn't exactly succinct) but the gist of it is this: David Turnbull got lucky last season, his stats suggest he is a league average midfielder and he needs to develop at an incredibly fast rate to be worth the outlay.

That's not to say that it won't happen. Just that it's very unlikely. For every transfer, there is a probability of success. The probability of Turnbull turning into a superstar at Celtic is small.
Click to expand...
Surely they are way to far down the line to pull the plug based on performance stats??
 
Its-Sebo said:
I'm not entirely sure how the xG metric is worked out, but having had an (objective as possible) look at his goals:

3 pens (as you've pointed out), 1 wicked deflection, 1 gk howler, 1 gk should have had covered.

Not all the other goals were crackers or anything, most of them were pretty simple, which is why I'm wondering why the xG is only 4.45, what is that based on?
Click to expand...
It's based on a number of factors (and Statsbomb won't tell you exactly how it's broken down in their model, for obvious reasons) but broadly speaking the factors for xG:

The location of the shot
Type of shot (e.g. if it's a header, a volley etc.)
How the player received the ball

There will be some others mixed in, but here's Statsbomb's own analysis on the strength and weakness of xG:

https://statsbomb.com/2018/05/the-dual-life-of-expected-goals-part-1/
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Share this page

Latest posts

Back
Top